A version of SEMA-model legislation to create a registration category for replica motor vehicles was approved by the Nevada State Assembly. Under the bill, replicas are defined as vehicles manufactured after 1968 to resemble vehicles manufactured before 1968. Replicas would be exempted from all emissions-inspection requirements. Registration as a replica vehicle would be open to 100 such vehicles each year and use would be limited to occasional transportation and other hobby-related activities. Titles for these vehicles would list both the year of assembly and the model year that the body of the vehicle replicates. The bill will next be considered by the Nevada Senate. For details, contact Steve McDonald at stevem@sema.org.

SEMA-supported legislation that would clarify that owners must pay only a minimal one-time registration fee for collector motor vehicles was approved by the Montana State Legislature and signed by the governor into law. Under Montana law, collector vehicles must be more than 30 years old and not used for general transportation. For details, contact Steve McDonald at stevem@sema.org.

SEMA-member companies have posted several new listings for job opportunities at www.sema.org/classifieds. Working for a SEMA-member company has many advantages. In addition to working for a company that supports and contributes to the success of the overall industry, being employed by a SEMA-member company enables the employee to participate in webinars, access free market research, join SEMA committees and more. The newest classified listings posted under Positions Available include:

• Warehouse Manager, Irvine, California
• Corporate Sales Representative, Irwindale California,
• Sales, Novi, Michigan
• Technical Support, Mooresville, North Carolina
• Sales, Mooresville, North Carolina
• R&D Technician/Designer, San Clemente, California

SEMA members: Have a job opening that you need filled? Members are invited to post classified ads at www.sema.org/classifieds free of charge. Categories include Position Available, Positions Wanted, Rep Opportunities, WD Opportunities, For Sale, Items Wanted, Business Opportunities and Internships. Visit the site for details.  

• 2006
  - Rick Rollins, Superchips
  
• 2005
  - Paul “Scooter” Brothers, Competition Cams Inc. 
  
• 2004
  - Bob Keller, Turbonetics
  - Jim Wirth, Wirth & Wirth Advertising
  
• 2003
  - Brian Appelgate, B&M Racing & Performance
  - Bob Vandergriff, Hedman Headers
  
• 2002
  - Arnold Kuhns, SFI Foundation 
  - Ray Lipper, Centerline Wheels 
  
• 2001
  - Jim McFarland, Hypertech Inc.
  
• 2000
  - P.G. “Red” Roberts, McLeod Industries

To see all of the SEMA Hall of Fame members from 1969–2006, visit www.sema.org/main/semaorghome.aspx?id=56032.

Although only a very small percentage of the 1.3 billion Chinese citizens own cars, the number is growing. In 2006, automobile output and sales grew by over 25%, topping 7.20 million vehicles last year, according a recent CCID Consulting press release. The Chinese consulting firm states that China has become the second largest auto consumer and the third largest auto producer in the world.

The consulting firm also says that China’s automobile market’s maturing trend is reflected in four aspects: In terms of market structure, thanks to a new consumer tax policy, the demand for passenger cars in China has been greatly stimulated. Passenger cars are taking up an increasing proportion of the market, rising to 72% in 2006 from 69% in 2005.

As for consumption, consumers have gradually become more practical when making decisions. This plays a pivotal role in pushing forward continuous product improvement, continuous marketing innovations and the formation of overall competitive advantages.

As for policies, China has successively introduced a defective automobile recall system and new policies encouraging independent innovations and continued development of energy-saving and environment-friendly automobiles. These policies have indirectly pushed forward the maturity of the automobile market.

CCID Consulting believes that the “multi-polarization” of the global automobile industry will lead to a healthy development of the Chinese automobile market.

In 2006, foreign capital grew fast in China. All multinational groups have invested and built their second or third factories in China. Joint venture enterprises saw a big increase in their automobile sales. The elegant appearance and high oil consumption of U.S. brands, the excellent technology of German brands, and the high configurations and low oil consumption of Japanese and Korean brands have left deep impressions on people.

Domestic automakers in China have long adopted a strategy of “technology for market” to cooperate with foreign enterprises in an effort to improve their competitiveness. In fact, the year 2006 also saw China’s national brands start to step up their efforts. Different from the past, Chery, Geely and BYD Auto won more market recognition. FAW, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC), ChangAn and Brilliance Auto also introduced their own new models and won considerable market recognition. In 2006, sales of national brands accounted for 26% of the total automobile sales in China, up 6% over 2005.

The table below provides a closer look at the top-selling vehicles in China in 2006, as well as how those vehicles’ sales compare over the past five years.

According to Linda Spencer, SEMA's director of international relations, "Small cars are growing in popularity with cars with an engine size of less than 1.6L comprising 60% of car sales. Rising oil prices, crowded conditions and an easing on temporary travel restrictions on cars with smaller engines on selected Shanghai congested roads has led to an increase in small cars. But luxury brands are also doing well. Mercedes had a reported 64% growth in January over the previous year, and Audi rose 32.5%. GM is also enjoying booming sales of its luxury brands such as the Cadillac STS."  

Spencer continued, "The Chinese passenger car market is just in its infancy with just 0.73% of the population owning a car in that market. As China’s regional income disparities level out and a steadily growing middle class emerges with income to buy both personal vehicles and accessories, vehicle sales will further rise. In the first two months of 2007, sales of passenger cars rose 33%. GM was the brand leader, pulling ahead of VW."

To sum up the performance of China’s automobile market in 2006, technological progress, price marketing and the improved quality of services contributed to a great increase in customer loyalty among repeat car buyers, but Chinese customers are most often buying their first car. The “multi-polarization” of the global automobile industry intensified market competition in China. It will also lead to the healthy development of the Chinese market.

CCID Consulting forecasts that China’s automobile market will grow steadily in the future, but market competition will intensify.

Changes in market demand due to policy and social factors resulted in the following characteristics in consumption behavior in the automobile market in 2006: more private consumption of automobile, small automobile displacement and low oil consumption. Changes on automobile appearance fashion will continue to 2007–2009. As for product supply, sales volume in China’s automobile market will grow by over 10%, 2007–2009. By 2009, sales volume is expected to top 10 million.
 

For more information on the Chinese and other global specialty-equipment markets visit www.sema.org/international

Sources: CCID Consulting Co., Ltd. (April 20, 2007). “CCID Consulting Says the Sales Volume of China's Automobiles Will Reach 10 Million in 2009.” Press release courtesy of PR Newswire; SEMA

Global warming and energy security worries are pushing more consumers to check out clean diesel vehicles, but buyer sticker shock and higher maintenance costs could push back against diesel growth in the United States, according to some industry observers who attended the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) World Congress. A recent article posted on Dieselforecast.com highlights a recent diesel panel discussion hosted at the latest SAE event.

According to the Dieselforecast.com article, all speakers answered “yes” to the panel’s theme: “Is the light-duty diesel ready for prime time” in the United States? But a few harbored doubts as to whether America can or should catch up with Europe and if U.S. consumers will be willing to change their habits in order to go diesel. About half of new vehicles in Europe are diesel-powered, compared with just 3% of the total vehicle fleet in the United States.

The rollout of ultra-low sulfur diesel (USLD) since October has been “a big success” said Christopher Grundler, deputy director at the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Transportation and Air Quality.

According to the article, Grundler said about 90% of all USLD fuel refined in the United States, more than the federal 80% requirement, contains less than 15 sulfur parts per million. The EPA recently issued preliminary guidelines for manufacturers of diesel engines, including requiring vehicles come equipped with onboard system to alert drivers when urea or ammonia after treatments run low.

“This is very different than other emissions-control technologies that we’ve dealt with in the past,” Grundler said. “It frankly places a bigger burden on the user to be a part of the emissions-compliance solution.”

Manufacturers need to educate consumers on these other maintenance requirements that will go with operating a diesel, said Robert Lee, vice president powertrain product engineering at DaimlerChrysler AG. But Lee has reason to be hopeful about consumer interest.

He presented data from J.D. Power and Associates, as well as internal DCX data that showed 14%–17% of potential American buyers (depending on the type of vehicle, such as cars versus SUVs) said they were very interested in purchasing a diesel. Meanwhile 34%–39% responded as somewhat interested. 

“Our challenge is to look at this and try to find ways to get consumers to accurately perceive what the diesel engine is doing in today’s modern environment,” Lee said.

Lee added that three factors could contribute to the growth of diesels in this country: consistency or commonality in global emissions standards; diesel and gasoline price parity; and the necessary growth of biofuels, such as biodiesel, to offset potential shortages of USLD.

For Chrysler Group, Europe has been the training ground for diesel technology. Lee touted a list of 11 DCX models, including the Grand Cherokee, offered in Europe as diesels.

“As you think about this list, you might have a shopping list to think about for the future in the United States,” Lee said.

The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute study asked 100 industry, academic, government and non-government powertrain experts to estimate clean diesel penetration in total North American production. Today, diesel cars represent less than half of 1%, but in 2015 the experts expect it to be 15% and hit 18% by 2020. Meanwhile, 6% of light trucks are diesel-powered but are expected to reach 25% in 2015 and 28% years later, according to the study.

But Jim Williams, senior downstream manager for the American Petroleum Institute, raised doubts the United States can approach those levels, even by 2030.

“The United States has some flexibility to change that mix, but it is not something you can do quickly or cheaply,” he said.

Williams estimates it costs between $500 million–$1 billion to convert a refinery from primarily gasoline to diesel production, and a five- to 10-year lead time to do so.

“This growth in diesel has been heavily influenced by tax incentives for the fuel, so much so that Europe is now importing diesel and exporting gasoline,” Williams said, noting that when Hurricane Katrina and Rita destroyed several Gulf Coast refineries, Europe was a major exporter to the United States. “Europe is complementing the U.S. gasoline supply rather than competing for energy needs,” Williams said.

On the maintenance side of the diesel issue, there was more optimistic news to be had. Tony Molla, vice president of communications for the National Institute for Automotive Service Excellence, was bullish about the current dealer and aftermarket maintenance infrastructure. For diesel to grow, however, more certified technicians will be needed to take over for the high numbers of technicians set to retire. Currently, most trade schools focus solely on heavy-duty diesel instruction, Molla said.

“The biggest challenge and opportunity we have is developing a curriculum for light-duty diesels,” Molla said. “The concern is while the infrastructure exists, we do not know if we’ll have the numbers of individuals we need to meet the (future) needs.”

The relatively high costs for selective catalyst reduction after treatment systems and the technicians to service them, is all the more reason for manufacturers to focus on engine efficiency, added James Eberhardt, chief scientist for the Office of FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies (FCVT) at the U.S. Department of Energy.

“To the extent that you can do more in the cylinder, in the combustion process, maintain the highest efficiency you can achieve and cut the amount demanded from the exhaust after treatment, we think that is the highest-priority research area,” Eberhardt said, noting concerns about the changing nature of the molecular composition of fuels.

Source: Anderson, Scott. (April, 2007). “Challenges in Converting Diesel Curious into Buyers.” Retrieved April 26, 2007 from www.dieselforecast.com.

AutoWeek reports that microcars are destined to achieve sales of only 100,000 units per year through 2013. In a recent article, AutoWeek reveals that CSM Worldwide, an automotive forecasting and market intelligence firm, predicts that U.S. consumers will shy away from cars that are smaller than subcompacts such as the Honda Fit and Chevrolet Aveo.

Automakers are anticipating a spurt in demand resulting from increasing fuel prices, which is giving rise to the release of DaimlerChrysler’s Smart ForTwo in 2008, and a possible GM production microcar in 2010 emerging from their recently unveiled three microcars concepts. Nevertheless, according to the article, CSM believes that sales of microcars—cars measuring less than 150 inches long—will dwarf that of subcompacts, which are expected to rise from an estimated 300,000 in 2007 to more than 550,000 in 2013. The reason: consumers will still reap the benefits of excellent fuel economy by having a bigger vehicle overall, comments Dave Terebessy, a CSM analyst.

However, high interest for the upcoming Smart ForTwo, indicated by the sheer number of visitors to the Smart website, demonstrates that there is a lot of “pent-up demand” for this microcar, states Ken Kettenbeil, Smart's director of communications. GM is also making sure that consumers embrace its concept microcars prior to going to production. Not only did the automaker put extra care into designing its concepts—each measuring 141 inches long—by giving them flared fenders for a bigger appearance, they are allowing interested consumers to control the fate of these microcars by having them vote for their favorite one on www.vote4chevrolet.com.

In the end, it may be up to car dealers to push these microcars and resist the urge to upsell to larger and more profitable cars, comments Jim Hall, vice president of the AutoPacific consulting firm.

Source: Kranz, Rick. (April 23, 2007). “Small Cars, Small Profits: Will Americans Embrace the Microcar Trend?” AutoWeek. Retrieved April 26, 2007 from www.autoweek.com.

A recent AutoWeek.com article reported that Jim Farley, now group vice president and general manager of the Lexus Division, said that Toyota Tundra buyers are more demanding when it comes to choosing the model with the trim, color and features that fits their needs versus buyers of the previous generation Tundra.

Like current buyers of domestic trucks, Tundra shoppers no longer accept whatever version happens to be on the dealer lots, Farley notes. Buyers of this redesigned truck are now adopting the need for personalization that domestic truck buyers have had for years. This could leave opportunities for specialty-equipment companies to jump in and offer the parts and accessories that the now more finicky Tundra buyers are demanding. The picture below shows an example of a customized 2007 Toyota Tundra that Ground Force displayed at the 2006 SEMA Show.

Farley told Automotive News that Tundra customers now ask for off-road packages with black leather interiors, for example, which translates to a built-to-order mentality that Tundra buyers of the past lacked. This is, in part, due to Toyota releasing 31 Tundra model configurations—nearly double compared to the 16 models offered for the previous generation. Also, Tundra buyers have more accessory options at the dealerships than in previous years, including several specialty-equipment company brands of truck-bed accessories and work-truck equipment.

With the new Tundra being bigger and more powerful than before—and Toyota making consumers aware of this with its aggressive marketing campaign—and now coming with more available dealer options, it may now be joining the ranks of the domestic trucks in the minds of consumers contemplating their next truck purchase.

Sources: Connely, Mary. (April, 23, 2007). “It’s All in the Mix: Toyota Dealers Have a Hard Time Finding the Exact Tundra Customers Want.” AutoWeek. Retrieved April 26, 2007 from www.autoweek.com; SEMA Research and Information Center.

U.S. demand for diesel engines and related aftermarket parts is forecasted to increase 3.8% annually through 2011 to $20 billion, a sign of the industry’s continued strength since coming off a high 2006 sales level.

According to The Freedonia Group, an industry market-research firm, diesel engine demand was artificially stimulated in 2006 by a boost in the key heavy-duty truck market as fleets sought to buy ahead of 2007 emissions-regulation changes. These changes will add both significant cost and uncertainty since first-year engines using new technologies may not be as robust in terms of reliability and durability. These and other trends are presented in “Diesel Engines to 2011,” Freedonia Group’s latest study on the diesel market.

The motor-vehicle market accounts for more than 70% of diesel engine demand. Heavy-duty trucks comprise the largest segment in this market, but the best opportunities will be found in the light-duty truck segment. Demand for diesel engines and parts in light-duty trucks will expand at a robust 9.6% annual rate, according to the report.

Although a much smaller market, passenger cars will also fare very well. Diesel engine-powered light vehicles currently account for less than 3% of new-car sales in the United States, so there is opportunity for a significant increase in penetration rates.

Off-highway diesel engines will experience a slowing but still robust demand through 2011 as new Tier-4 off-highway diesel-emissions regulations phase in between 2008 and 2015. These reductions, with particulate and oxides of nitrogen emissions mandated to be further reduced by about 90%, will likely be achieved through the use of control technologies such as advanced exhaust gas after-treatment.

The report also notes that shipments of diesel engine products from U.S. manufacturing sites will grow 2.3% annually through 2011 to $18.8 billion, driven by rising exports, which will benefit from the weakness of the dollar. Gains will be supported by technological enhancements and newer generations of diesel engines that meet government emissions standards. Shipments will be constrained by the continued shift of production to lower-cost regions, which will also increase the net trade deficit in diesel engines.

The report is available from The Freedonia Group. For more information, visit www.freedoniagroup.com.

Source: The Freedonia Group. (March, 2007). “Diesel Engines to 2011.” Retrieved April 27, 2007 from www.freedoniagroup.com.