SEMA News - June 2009
Heritage

By Drew Hardin
Photo Courtesy Source Interlink Media Archives

At the 2008 Los Angeles Auto Show, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger received a two-hour, behind-the-scenes tour of the environmentally friendly vehicles that filled the Show’s halls, led by the Green Car Journal’s Ron Cogan. In 1971, an earlier actor-turned-California-governor examined a different kind of specialty vehicle when Ronald Reagan posed with Steve Krisiloff’s STP-sponsored McNamara/Ford Indy car.

A caption at the bottom of the photo identified the setting as a “national discussion session” for Republican governors held in French Lick, Indiana. “…Reagan of California, a national political figure, was one of 20 governors who got a firsthand look at one of the world’s fastest racing machines,” read the caption.

Reagan, of course, went on to become president in 1981. A lot would have to change for Arnold Schwarzenegger to follow in his footsteps to the White House but, then again, “change” seems to be the operative word these days.

SEMA News - June 2009
RESEARCH

By Ty Michael

Measuring Consumers’ Performance Parts and Accessories Purchase Intentions

During these tough economic times, forecasting consumer spending helps to focus in on the road ahead. While not being a precise measure of future spending, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) provides marketing planners with a useful tool that estimates future specialty-equipment demand.

By tracking the index, industry experts have another piece of data that can help with planning inventories as well as how to spend those increasingly scarce marketing dollars.

From January–March 2009, consumers began to show some optimism about their future specialty-equipment purchase plans. Two of the three months showed increases in the SEMA index, followed by a March drop-off, as shown in Graph 1 (below). However, specialty-equipment sales are seasonal, so fluctuations in consumer purchase plans are to be expected. Last year, for example, the March index showed a similar decline after a February spike. Nevertheless, results for the SEMA index for the first quarter of this year averaged four points higher than in the last quarter of 2008—a sign that consumers are now thinking about opening their wallets and spending money on their vehicles. During January through March of this year, the PADI average came in at 36, a drop of 23 points from the same time last year, but higher than the late-2008 slump.

During March of this year, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) reached 30, down 12 points from last year. Overall, the index averaged 36 for the first quarter of 2009.

Index Explained

After looking at the first-quarter index data, some readers may wonder what exactly the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index is. Simply put, it is a value that measures consumers’ purchase intentions for automotive specialty equipment. Every month, consumers are surveyed and asked about their specialty-equipment purchase intentions. Much like the highly watched consumer confidence index, which quantifies consumer optimism for the current state of the U.S. economy, the SEMA index measures whether consumers feel optimistic about spending money on modifications for their vehicles sometime within the following three months of each respective survey. This helps provide a rough forecast for demand of specialty equipment in the near future.

The SEMA PADI and its movement are projectable to the national market for specialty-equipment products, which consists of more than 114 million U.S. households. Each month, a random digit-dial telephone survey is used to collect the survey data in order to provide a nationally representative sample of U.S. consumers. Typically, the responses total between 850 and 1,000 in any given month. The margin of error is normally within the +/- 3%–4% range.

Although the SEMA index is not a precise measure of absolute future purchasing activity, it is nonetheless a tool for understanding and predicting industry sales. There are two ways of interpreting the index. First is its direction—whether the index is rising or falling. Second are the values themselves, which provide a year-over-year guide to the degree of change in consumer expectations for purchasing industry products.

Despite declines in overall purchase intentions, the data above does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans.

The Latest Results

By product category, racing and performance products showed a slight uptick from the last quarter of 2008. During the first three months of this year, 6% of consumers surveyed, on average, said that they planned to purchase performance products, compared to 7% at this time last year. Four percent indicated accessory and appearance product purchase plans, which is a decline from 7% last year, while 5% said they plan to purchase wheel, tire and suspension products, down 6% from last year.

While these declines may seem daunting to companies eagerly awaiting signs of industry improvement, the data in Table 1 does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans. For example, notice that 21% of consumers 18–24 years of age said that they planned to purchase racing and performance products during the first three months of this year, up to the same level at this time last year when the specialty-equipment industry was experiencing pre-recessionary growth levels.

Recent SEMA PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans. Over the past three months, more consumers were eyeing the hot-rod, off-road and street-performance markets compared to this time last year, as shown in Table 2. When consumers planning specialty-equipment purchases were asked what form their vehicle would take after customization, the most common answer, on average over the last three months, was “general personalization” (43%), followed by “street performance” (15%) and “restoration” (13%). Although the most popular form of planned modifications is still restyling, more consumers are now deciding to head toward street-performance-, hot-rod- and off-road-type modifications.

Recent SEMA Performance PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans.

What the PADI Means to You

So now that all of this data has been presented, many readers are probably wondering how they can use the SEMA index data to make business decisions. SEMA members that have already used the index explain that matching up their individual sales data to the index trend line has helped to reaffirm that they are keeping pace with the market.

“I often use the PADI, which confirms our sales months when things were slow, from July to current,” said Bob Shymkiw, vice president of sales and marketing for TFP Inc., a manufacturer of stainless-steel chrome trim. Shymkiw also noted that it was reassuring to see that the index fluctuations—both peaks and valleys—were very similar to the sales trends his company experienced during the latter half of last year and the early part of this year.

Since the SEMA PADI has been measuring consumers’ purchase intentions for a couple of years now, trend analysis is also possible. For instance, if the PADI showed an upward trend after July 2008, then it is possible that a similar growth period could be expected after July of this year. The opposite could also be true, as noted by Ron Coleman, president of Competition Cams Inc., manufacturer of camshafts and valvetrain products.

“By studying the Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index and performing trend analysis, I have a good idea of when to cut inventory levels,” he said, and noted that the index helps in looking forward and getting a sense of when business may improve as well as pinpointing specific age groups and geographic regions that are experiencing growth. “The ultimate goal of using any index, like that produced by SEMA, is to determine who will enter your shop to buy a product and when they will be making that transaction,” Coleman said.

SEMA News - June 2009
RESEARCH

By Ty Michael

Measuring Consumers’ Performance Parts and Accessories Purchase Intentions

During these tough economic times, forecasting consumer spending helps to focus in on the road ahead. While not being a precise measure of future spending, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) provides marketing planners with a useful tool that estimates future specialty-equipment demand.

By tracking the index, industry experts have another piece of data that can help with planning inventories as well as how to spend those increasingly scarce marketing dollars.

From January–March 2009, consumers began to show some optimism about their future specialty-equipment purchase plans. Two of the three months showed increases in the SEMA index, followed by a March drop-off, as shown in Graph 1 (below). However, specialty-equipment sales are seasonal, so fluctuations in consumer purchase plans are to be expected. Last year, for example, the March index showed a similar decline after a February spike. Nevertheless, results for the SEMA index for the first quarter of this year averaged four points higher than in the last quarter of 2008—a sign that consumers are now thinking about opening their wallets and spending money on their vehicles. During January through March of this year, the PADI average came in at 36, a drop of 23 points from the same time last year, but higher than the late-2008 slump.

During March of this year, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) reached 30, down 12 points from last year. Overall, the index averaged 36 for the first quarter of 2009.

Index Explained

After looking at the first-quarter index data, some readers may wonder what exactly the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index is. Simply put, it is a value that measures consumers’ purchase intentions for automotive specialty equipment. Every month, consumers are surveyed and asked about their specialty-equipment purchase intentions. Much like the highly watched consumer confidence index, which quantifies consumer optimism for the current state of the U.S. economy, the SEMA index measures whether consumers feel optimistic about spending money on modifications for their vehicles sometime within the following three months of each respective survey. This helps provide a rough forecast for demand of specialty equipment in the near future.

The SEMA PADI and its movement are projectable to the national market for specialty-equipment products, which consists of more than 114 million U.S. households. Each month, a random digit-dial telephone survey is used to collect the survey data in order to provide a nationally representative sample of U.S. consumers. Typically, the responses total between 850 and 1,000 in any given month. The margin of error is normally within the +/- 3%–4% range.

Although the SEMA index is not a precise measure of absolute future purchasing activity, it is nonetheless a tool for understanding and predicting industry sales. There are two ways of interpreting the index. First is its direction—whether the index is rising or falling. Second are the values themselves, which provide a year-over-year guide to the degree of change in consumer expectations for purchasing industry products.

Despite declines in overall purchase intentions, the data above does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans.

The Latest Results

By product category, racing and performance products showed a slight uptick from the last quarter of 2008. During the first three months of this year, 6% of consumers surveyed, on average, said that they planned to purchase performance products, compared to 7% at this time last year. Four percent indicated accessory and appearance product purchase plans, which is a decline from 7% last year, while 5% said they plan to purchase wheel, tire and suspension products, down 6% from last year.

While these declines may seem daunting to companies eagerly awaiting signs of industry improvement, the data in Table 1 does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans. For example, notice that 21% of consumers 18–24 years of age said that they planned to purchase racing and performance products during the first three months of this year, up to the same level at this time last year when the specialty-equipment industry was experiencing pre-recessionary growth levels.

Recent SEMA PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans. Over the past three months, more consumers were eyeing the hot-rod, off-road and street-performance markets compared to this time last year, as shown in Table 2. When consumers planning specialty-equipment purchases were asked what form their vehicle would take after customization, the most common answer, on average over the last three months, was “general personalization” (43%), followed by “street performance” (15%) and “restoration” (13%). Although the most popular form of planned modifications is still restyling, more consumers are now deciding to head toward street-performance-, hot-rod- and off-road-type modifications.

Recent SEMA Performance PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans.

What the PADI Means to You

So now that all of this data has been presented, many readers are probably wondering how they can use the SEMA index data to make business decisions. SEMA members that have already used the index explain that matching up their individual sales data to the index trend line has helped to reaffirm that they are keeping pace with the market.

“I often use the PADI, which confirms our sales months when things were slow, from July to current,” said Bob Shymkiw, vice president of sales and marketing for TFP Inc., a manufacturer of stainless-steel chrome trim. Shymkiw also noted that it was reassuring to see that the index fluctuations—both peaks and valleys—were very similar to the sales trends his company experienced during the latter half of last year and the early part of this year.

Since the SEMA PADI has been measuring consumers’ purchase intentions for a couple of years now, trend analysis is also possible. For instance, if the PADI showed an upward trend after July 2008, then it is possible that a similar growth period could be expected after July of this year. The opposite could also be true, as noted by Ron Coleman, president of Competition Cams Inc., manufacturer of camshafts and valvetrain products.

“By studying the Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index and performing trend analysis, I have a good idea of when to cut inventory levels,” he said, and noted that the index helps in looking forward and getting a sense of when business may improve as well as pinpointing specific age groups and geographic regions that are experiencing growth. “The ultimate goal of using any index, like that produced by SEMA, is to determine who will enter your shop to buy a product and when they will be making that transaction,” Coleman said.

SEMA News - June 2009
RESEARCH

By Ty Michael

Measuring Consumers’ Performance Parts and Accessories Purchase Intentions

During these tough economic times, forecasting consumer spending helps to focus in on the road ahead. While not being a precise measure of future spending, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) provides marketing planners with a useful tool that estimates future specialty-equipment demand.

By tracking the index, industry experts have another piece of data that can help with planning inventories as well as how to spend those increasingly scarce marketing dollars.

From January–March 2009, consumers began to show some optimism about their future specialty-equipment purchase plans. Two of the three months showed increases in the SEMA index, followed by a March drop-off, as shown in Graph 1 (below). However, specialty-equipment sales are seasonal, so fluctuations in consumer purchase plans are to be expected. Last year, for example, the March index showed a similar decline after a February spike. Nevertheless, results for the SEMA index for the first quarter of this year averaged four points higher than in the last quarter of 2008—a sign that consumers are now thinking about opening their wallets and spending money on their vehicles. During January through March of this year, the PADI average came in at 36, a drop of 23 points from the same time last year, but higher than the late-2008 slump.

During March of this year, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) reached 30, down 12 points from last year. Overall, the index averaged 36 for the first quarter of 2009.

Index Explained

After looking at the first-quarter index data, some readers may wonder what exactly the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index is. Simply put, it is a value that measures consumers’ purchase intentions for automotive specialty equipment. Every month, consumers are surveyed and asked about their specialty-equipment purchase intentions. Much like the highly watched consumer confidence index, which quantifies consumer optimism for the current state of the U.S. economy, the SEMA index measures whether consumers feel optimistic about spending money on modifications for their vehicles sometime within the following three months of each respective survey. This helps provide a rough forecast for demand of specialty equipment in the near future.

The SEMA PADI and its movement are projectable to the national market for specialty-equipment products, which consists of more than 114 million U.S. households. Each month, a random digit-dial telephone survey is used to collect the survey data in order to provide a nationally representative sample of U.S. consumers. Typically, the responses total between 850 and 1,000 in any given month. The margin of error is normally within the +/- 3%–4% range.

Although the SEMA index is not a precise measure of absolute future purchasing activity, it is nonetheless a tool for understanding and predicting industry sales. There are two ways of interpreting the index. First is its direction—whether the index is rising or falling. Second are the values themselves, which provide a year-over-year guide to the degree of change in consumer expectations for purchasing industry products.

Despite declines in overall purchase intentions, the data above does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans.

The Latest Results

By product category, racing and performance products showed a slight uptick from the last quarter of 2008. During the first three months of this year, 6% of consumers surveyed, on average, said that they planned to purchase performance products, compared to 7% at this time last year. Four percent indicated accessory and appearance product purchase plans, which is a decline from 7% last year, while 5% said they plan to purchase wheel, tire and suspension products, down 6% from last year.

While these declines may seem daunting to companies eagerly awaiting signs of industry improvement, the data in Table 1 does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans. For example, notice that 21% of consumers 18–24 years of age said that they planned to purchase racing and performance products during the first three months of this year, up to the same level at this time last year when the specialty-equipment industry was experiencing pre-recessionary growth levels.

Recent SEMA PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans. Over the past three months, more consumers were eyeing the hot-rod, off-road and street-performance markets compared to this time last year, as shown in Table 2. When consumers planning specialty-equipment purchases were asked what form their vehicle would take after customization, the most common answer, on average over the last three months, was “general personalization” (43%), followed by “street performance” (15%) and “restoration” (13%). Although the most popular form of planned modifications is still restyling, more consumers are now deciding to head toward street-performance-, hot-rod- and off-road-type modifications.

Recent SEMA Performance PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans.

What the PADI Means to You

So now that all of this data has been presented, many readers are probably wondering how they can use the SEMA index data to make business decisions. SEMA members that have already used the index explain that matching up their individual sales data to the index trend line has helped to reaffirm that they are keeping pace with the market.

“I often use the PADI, which confirms our sales months when things were slow, from July to current,” said Bob Shymkiw, vice president of sales and marketing for TFP Inc., a manufacturer of stainless-steel chrome trim. Shymkiw also noted that it was reassuring to see that the index fluctuations—both peaks and valleys—were very similar to the sales trends his company experienced during the latter half of last year and the early part of this year.

Since the SEMA PADI has been measuring consumers’ purchase intentions for a couple of years now, trend analysis is also possible. For instance, if the PADI showed an upward trend after July 2008, then it is possible that a similar growth period could be expected after July of this year. The opposite could also be true, as noted by Ron Coleman, president of Competition Cams Inc., manufacturer of camshafts and valvetrain products.

“By studying the Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index and performing trend analysis, I have a good idea of when to cut inventory levels,” he said, and noted that the index helps in looking forward and getting a sense of when business may improve as well as pinpointing specific age groups and geographic regions that are experiencing growth. “The ultimate goal of using any index, like that produced by SEMA, is to determine who will enter your shop to buy a product and when they will be making that transaction,” Coleman said.

SEMA News - June 2009
RESEARCH

By Ty Michael

Measuring Consumers’ Performance Parts and Accessories Purchase Intentions

During these tough economic times, forecasting consumer spending helps to focus in on the road ahead. While not being a precise measure of future spending, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) provides marketing planners with a useful tool that estimates future specialty-equipment demand.

By tracking the index, industry experts have another piece of data that can help with planning inventories as well as how to spend those increasingly scarce marketing dollars.

From January–March 2009, consumers began to show some optimism about their future specialty-equipment purchase plans. Two of the three months showed increases in the SEMA index, followed by a March drop-off, as shown in Graph 1 (below). However, specialty-equipment sales are seasonal, so fluctuations in consumer purchase plans are to be expected. Last year, for example, the March index showed a similar decline after a February spike. Nevertheless, results for the SEMA index for the first quarter of this year averaged four points higher than in the last quarter of 2008—a sign that consumers are now thinking about opening their wallets and spending money on their vehicles. During January through March of this year, the PADI average came in at 36, a drop of 23 points from the same time last year, but higher than the late-2008 slump.

During March of this year, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) reached 30, down 12 points from last year. Overall, the index averaged 36 for the first quarter of 2009.

Index Explained

After looking at the first-quarter index data, some readers may wonder what exactly the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index is. Simply put, it is a value that measures consumers’ purchase intentions for automotive specialty equipment. Every month, consumers are surveyed and asked about their specialty-equipment purchase intentions. Much like the highly watched consumer confidence index, which quantifies consumer optimism for the current state of the U.S. economy, the SEMA index measures whether consumers feel optimistic about spending money on modifications for their vehicles sometime within the following three months of each respective survey. This helps provide a rough forecast for demand of specialty equipment in the near future.

The SEMA PADI and its movement are projectable to the national market for specialty-equipment products, which consists of more than 114 million U.S. households. Each month, a random digit-dial telephone survey is used to collect the survey data in order to provide a nationally representative sample of U.S. consumers. Typically, the responses total between 850 and 1,000 in any given month. The margin of error is normally within the +/- 3%–4% range.

Although the SEMA index is not a precise measure of absolute future purchasing activity, it is nonetheless a tool for understanding and predicting industry sales. There are two ways of interpreting the index. First is its direction—whether the index is rising or falling. Second are the values themselves, which provide a year-over-year guide to the degree of change in consumer expectations for purchasing industry products.

Despite declines in overall purchase intentions, the data above does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans.

The Latest Results

By product category, racing and performance products showed a slight uptick from the last quarter of 2008. During the first three months of this year, 6% of consumers surveyed, on average, said that they planned to purchase performance products, compared to 7% at this time last year. Four percent indicated accessory and appearance product purchase plans, which is a decline from 7% last year, while 5% said they plan to purchase wheel, tire and suspension products, down 6% from last year.

While these declines may seem daunting to companies eagerly awaiting signs of industry improvement, the data in Table 1 does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans. For example, notice that 21% of consumers 18–24 years of age said that they planned to purchase racing and performance products during the first three months of this year, up to the same level at this time last year when the specialty-equipment industry was experiencing pre-recessionary growth levels.

Recent SEMA PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans. Over the past three months, more consumers were eyeing the hot-rod, off-road and street-performance markets compared to this time last year, as shown in Table 2. When consumers planning specialty-equipment purchases were asked what form their vehicle would take after customization, the most common answer, on average over the last three months, was “general personalization” (43%), followed by “street performance” (15%) and “restoration” (13%). Although the most popular form of planned modifications is still restyling, more consumers are now deciding to head toward street-performance-, hot-rod- and off-road-type modifications.

Recent SEMA Performance PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans.

What the PADI Means to You

So now that all of this data has been presented, many readers are probably wondering how they can use the SEMA index data to make business decisions. SEMA members that have already used the index explain that matching up their individual sales data to the index trend line has helped to reaffirm that they are keeping pace with the market.

“I often use the PADI, which confirms our sales months when things were slow, from July to current,” said Bob Shymkiw, vice president of sales and marketing for TFP Inc., a manufacturer of stainless-steel chrome trim. Shymkiw also noted that it was reassuring to see that the index fluctuations—both peaks and valleys—were very similar to the sales trends his company experienced during the latter half of last year and the early part of this year.

Since the SEMA PADI has been measuring consumers’ purchase intentions for a couple of years now, trend analysis is also possible. For instance, if the PADI showed an upward trend after July 2008, then it is possible that a similar growth period could be expected after July of this year. The opposite could also be true, as noted by Ron Coleman, president of Competition Cams Inc., manufacturer of camshafts and valvetrain products.

“By studying the Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index and performing trend analysis, I have a good idea of when to cut inventory levels,” he said, and noted that the index helps in looking forward and getting a sense of when business may improve as well as pinpointing specific age groups and geographic regions that are experiencing growth. “The ultimate goal of using any index, like that produced by SEMA, is to determine who will enter your shop to buy a product and when they will be making that transaction,” Coleman said.

SEMA News - June 2009
RESEARCH

By Ty Michael

Measuring Consumers’ Performance Parts and Accessories Purchase Intentions

During these tough economic times, forecasting consumer spending helps to focus in on the road ahead. While not being a precise measure of future spending, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) provides marketing planners with a useful tool that estimates future specialty-equipment demand.

By tracking the index, industry experts have another piece of data that can help with planning inventories as well as how to spend those increasingly scarce marketing dollars.

From January–March 2009, consumers began to show some optimism about their future specialty-equipment purchase plans. Two of the three months showed increases in the SEMA index, followed by a March drop-off, as shown in Graph 1 (below). However, specialty-equipment sales are seasonal, so fluctuations in consumer purchase plans are to be expected. Last year, for example, the March index showed a similar decline after a February spike. Nevertheless, results for the SEMA index for the first quarter of this year averaged four points higher than in the last quarter of 2008—a sign that consumers are now thinking about opening their wallets and spending money on their vehicles. During January through March of this year, the PADI average came in at 36, a drop of 23 points from the same time last year, but higher than the late-2008 slump.

During March of this year, the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) reached 30, down 12 points from last year. Overall, the index averaged 36 for the first quarter of 2009.

Index Explained

After looking at the first-quarter index data, some readers may wonder what exactly the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index is. Simply put, it is a value that measures consumers’ purchase intentions for automotive specialty equipment. Every month, consumers are surveyed and asked about their specialty-equipment purchase intentions. Much like the highly watched consumer confidence index, which quantifies consumer optimism for the current state of the U.S. economy, the SEMA index measures whether consumers feel optimistic about spending money on modifications for their vehicles sometime within the following three months of each respective survey. This helps provide a rough forecast for demand of specialty equipment in the near future.

The SEMA PADI and its movement are projectable to the national market for specialty-equipment products, which consists of more than 114 million U.S. households. Each month, a random digit-dial telephone survey is used to collect the survey data in order to provide a nationally representative sample of U.S. consumers. Typically, the responses total between 850 and 1,000 in any given month. The margin of error is normally within the +/- 3%–4% range.

Although the SEMA index is not a precise measure of absolute future purchasing activity, it is nonetheless a tool for understanding and predicting industry sales. There are two ways of interpreting the index. First is its direction—whether the index is rising or falling. Second are the values themselves, which provide a year-over-year guide to the degree of change in consumer expectations for purchasing industry products.

Despite declines in overall purchase intentions, the data above does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans.

The Latest Results

By product category, racing and performance products showed a slight uptick from the last quarter of 2008. During the first three months of this year, 6% of consumers surveyed, on average, said that they planned to purchase performance products, compared to 7% at this time last year. Four percent indicated accessory and appearance product purchase plans, which is a decline from 7% last year, while 5% said they plan to purchase wheel, tire and suspension products, down 6% from last year.

While these declines may seem daunting to companies eagerly awaiting signs of industry improvement, the data in Table 1 does provide some relief by showing specific demographics that are actually holding steady, if not improving, on their possible future purchase plans. For example, notice that 21% of consumers 18–24 years of age said that they planned to purchase racing and performance products during the first three months of this year, up to the same level at this time last year when the specialty-equipment industry was experiencing pre-recessionary growth levels.

Recent SEMA PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans. Over the past three months, more consumers were eyeing the hot-rod, off-road and street-performance markets compared to this time last year, as shown in Table 2. When consumers planning specialty-equipment purchases were asked what form their vehicle would take after customization, the most common answer, on average over the last three months, was “general personalization” (43%), followed by “street performance” (15%) and “restoration” (13%). Although the most popular form of planned modifications is still restyling, more consumers are now deciding to head toward street-performance-, hot-rod- and off-road-type modifications.

Recent SEMA Performance PADI results also show that consumers are slowly shifting away from general personalization and heading toward a niche-focused theme for their vehicle customization plans.

What the PADI Means to You

So now that all of this data has been presented, many readers are probably wondering how they can use the SEMA index data to make business decisions. SEMA members that have already used the index explain that matching up their individual sales data to the index trend line has helped to reaffirm that they are keeping pace with the market.

“I often use the PADI, which confirms our sales months when things were slow, from July to current,” said Bob Shymkiw, vice president of sales and marketing for TFP Inc., a manufacturer of stainless-steel chrome trim. Shymkiw also noted that it was reassuring to see that the index fluctuations—both peaks and valleys—were very similar to the sales trends his company experienced during the latter half of last year and the early part of this year.

Since the SEMA PADI has been measuring consumers’ purchase intentions for a couple of years now, trend analysis is also possible. For instance, if the PADI showed an upward trend after July 2008, then it is possible that a similar growth period could be expected after July of this year. The opposite could also be true, as noted by Ron Coleman, president of Competition Cams Inc., manufacturer of camshafts and valvetrain products.

“By studying the Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index and performing trend analysis, I have a good idea of when to cut inventory levels,” he said, and noted that the index helps in looking forward and getting a sense of when business may improve as well as pinpointing specific age groups and geographic regions that are experiencing growth. “The ultimate goal of using any index, like that produced by SEMA, is to determine who will enter your shop to buy a product and when they will be making that transaction,” Coleman said.

SEMA News - June 2009
Catalog and Product Showcase

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	Al’s Liner Al’s Liner Acrylic/Urethane Coating System for the do-it-yourself crowd! http://www.alsliner.com/ /800-999-6841 Al’s Liner is a high solids urethane coating offering users the ability to color match without top coating; the pigment is mixed in the material. You can easily vary the texture by adjusting application techniques and mixture ratios. Al’s provides, long-lasting protection, vibration and sound reduction plus the custom look no other DIY liner can.
	Al’s Liner Al’s Liner offers DIY Urethane systems for the automotive, home, shop and general application purposes. From your concrete patio or wood deck to the under body of your hot-rod restoration project, Al’s Liner has the coatings you need to get the protection and look you want and need. Feel free to contact us at 800/999-6841 or info@alsliner.com for more information.
	Bender Enterprises Inc. The Fast, The Fraudulent & The Fatal FRAUD ALERT! How does the dangerous and dark side of the modified car scene affect your business? Are your products on the radar? Find out the answers in The Fast, The Fraudulent & The Fatal. You will be shocked to find out what is really going on in the modified vehicle scene. F.A.S.T.-The Foundation for Automotive Safety and Trends Inc. http://protectourstreets.org/   VINtrack: http://vintrack.com/
	Carriage Works Dodge Challenger Bolt-Over Billet Grille Carriage Works is proud to announce a Bolt-Over Billet Grille for the new Dodge Challenger. These grilles are available separately and install in 30 minutes or less using simple hand tools—a quick and easy way to change the look of this hot, new musclecar. All Carriage Works accessories are proudly made in the USA and feature a world-class fit and finish. PN 44522 Upper and PN 44532 Lower. http://www.cwgrilles.com/
	Dick Cepek Tires & Wheels Dick Cepek’s 2009 catalog features all of their great products, including the Radial F-C II, Mud Country and the aggressive Crusher radial that has a unique broken bone tread design with skull and cross bone sidebiters. The new catalog has all the details on the hot, new Dick Cepek Torque wheel line as well as apparel and point-of-sale materials available to dealers. Dick Cepek Tires & Wheels 4600 Prosper Drive Road Stow, Ohio P. 800/222-9092 F. 330/928-0503 http://www.dickcepek.com/
	Green Filter Green Filter USA has been a leader in the automotive aftermarket during this past decade. Green offers a full range of filters for compact cars, luxury cars, sedans, minivans, trucks, SUVs, diesel trucks, ATVs, motorcycles and karts. And new to the Green Filter line is a full selection of cold air intakes for fullsize trucks, SUVs and diesel trucks. A number of top race teams and some of the world’s most prestigious performance companies use Green Filters. A high-performance air filter manufacturer for anything you race, ride or drive. For product and sales information, visit http://www.greenfilterusa.com/, contact company headquarters at 724/430-2050 or write to Green Filter USA at P.O. Box 149, Mt. Braddock, PA, 15465.
	Ground Force For nearly 30 years, Ground Force Suspension has been the leader in tuned lowering suspension systems for yesterday’s and today’s light trucks and SUVs. Serving both the OE and aftermarket, Ground Force is the only tuned suspension system provider for both 2WD and 4WD light trucks, SUVs and today’s hottest musclecars. Our lineup is composed of 100% designed, engineered and manufactured suspension systems, made here in the USA! Contact Ground Force for the hottest in suspension technology today! Ground Force Suspension 714 Braddock View Dr. Mt. Braddock, PA 15465 800/522-1511 http://www.groundforce.com/
	McGard McGard has been protecting the world’s finest wheels and tires from theft since 1964. Our wheel locks provide the highest level of protection against costly wheel and tire theft. Our lug nuts are built to last a lifetime. They are guaranteed not to rust, chip or peel. Our consistent high-quality insures the greatest value for our customer and is evident in every McGard product on the market today. Visit us at http://www.mcgard.com/ or call 800/669-6887.
	McGard Installation Kits Everything you need to install your new wheels in one convenient package! We’ve combined the best wheel and tire theft protection available with the highest-quality fully machined chrome plated lug nuts. Available with Tough Nut hex lug nuts or SplineDrive tuner lug nuts. Most kits include wheel locks & key tool, I.D. card, storage pouch and chrome sleeve valve stems. For more information, visit us at http://www.mcgard.com/ or call 800/669-6887.
	Mickey Thompson Performance Tires & Wheels Mickey Thompson’s new 2009 catalog features the entire line of Mickey Thompson tires & wheels for hot rodders, drag racers and truck and off-road enthusiasts. New for 2009 is the Sportsman S/T white letter radial for musclecars, the Pro-5 ET Drag wheel, and the hot, new SideBiter wheel. Get detailed specifications for all products, Mickey Thompson apparel and P.O.P. display materials. Mickey Thompson Performance Tires & Wheels 4600 Prosper Drive Road Stow, Ohio P. 800/222-9092 F. 330/928-0503 http://www.mickeythompsontires.com/
	Owens Products Inc. GlaStep Custom Fiberglass Running Boards GlaStep custom fiberglass running boards for the ’09 Dodge Ram 1500 are shipping! GlaStep running boards feature dense layers of hand-laid, premium-grade fiberglass with a primer gel-coat finish. Custom fit, easy to install and no-drill brackets provide fast installation and solid mounting. The application shown here is P/N 3171, a full-length running board for ’09 Dodge Ram 1500 Crew Cabs with a 5.7-foot box. All GlaStep running boards are available with Owens Precise Paint Program. Owens Products, Inc. 800/726-9367 http://www.owensproducts.com/
	Owens Products Inc. EXTREME Owens Paddle Latch Tool Box Series Check out these tool boxes! The EXTREME OWENS diamond-tread aluminum boxes feature an exclusive patented lid with a distinctive curve. The paddle latch series is offered in both a standard height as well as a low-profile design, which allows clear vision from the cab of the truck. All EXTREME Owens boxes feature extreme lid bracing, making this one of the toughest lids on the market. This series is offered in crossover, side-mount and chest-style boxes. Owens Products Inc. 800/726-9367 http://www.owensproducts.com/
	Professional Products 2009 Full Line Catalog Professional Products has just released an updated 2009 Catalog with all the latest new products, including the Powerjection III EFI System. The 2009 Catalog is all full-color and features every product offered by Professional Products, including their line of Powerflow Hose and Fittings. A number of new applications for Powerforce and Powerforce+Plus Harmonic Dampers are included plus Powerfilter Oil Filters, and the expanded line of fuel-injection systems and components. Professional Products 12705 S. Van Ness Ave. Hawthorne, CA 90250 323/779-2020 http://www.professional-products.com/
	Professional Products Unique Powerjection III EFI System The new Powerjection III is the SEMA Award winner that offers these features: 1) The industry’s most advanced fuel-injection system; 2) The easiest aftermarket fuel-injection system to install; 3) The first to offer “Adaptive Learning,” which means it is self-tuning while also laptop programmable if desired; 4) The least expensive full-featured EFI system available; 5) The only EFI with the computer integrated into the throttle body. The Powerjection III is the total package. Professional Products 12705 S. Van Ness Ave. Hawthorne, CA 90250 323/779-2020 www.professional-products.com
	ProRYDE Suspension Systems Leveling…with a TWIST! Winner SEMA 2009 BEST NEW OFF-ROAD/4x4 PRODUCT! ProRYDE announces the only complete line of on-vehicle ADJUSTABLE light-truck Leveling Kits. Whether the vehicle has a Strut-type or Torsion Bar suspension, the installer decides what the front ride height will be, from 2” to 3.5”, varying by application. Available for GM, Ford, Dodge, Nissan and Toyota. ProRYDE Suspension Systems www.ProRYDE.com 888/813-RYDE (7933)
	ROSS Racing Pistons ROSS Racing Pistons is celebrating its 30th year as one of the industries’ premier piston manufacturers, along with its numerous NMRA, NMCA and ADRL championships in 2008. ROSS has added several new designs and part numbers to its popular lineup for the 2009 catalog, including sport-compact, diesel, classic and antique pistons. ROSS also offers a complete line of rings, pins, locks and coatings. For a free catalog, e-mail sales@rosspistons.com and mention that you saw it in SEMA News.
	TAG–Century Fiberglass Inc. Cargo Cover–Century True Value The Cargo Cover from cap and tonneau manufacturer Century is ideal for truck enthusiasts who want to retain the classic profile of their pickup and secure the contents of their cargo bed. The graceful expanse of the high-gloss painted fiberglass turns an otherwise unprotected pickup bed into a huge lockable space to stow and transport gear. A new enter latch provides easy one-hand access to the interior. Owners note a gas mileage boost, too, as the cover reduces the turbulence of an open bed. For more info, contact Century Caps at www.centurycaps.com; kellyl@truckgroup.com; 800/828-2277.
	TAG–LEER LEER 700 Tonneau: The Pinnacle of Style and Quality One look at the remarkable integration of style and function will remind truck owners why the LEER 700 Series tonneau is the clear market leader. By artfully shaping the 700 to reflect key lines in each truck it fits, designers at LEER have set a standard for custom styling no competitor can match. Befitting its place as the top tonneau, the 700 is equipped with top-quality hardware and a premium list of standard features; adding keyless remote control to the exclusive LEER Twist Handle is a popular option. The LEER 700 is available for virtually every pickup on the road. LEER, www.leer.com; 574/522-5337 x377; leerinfo@leer.com.
	TAG–Pace Edwards Pace Edwards JackRabbit Retractable Cover with Contractor Rig Rack The Contractor Rig Rack is the perfect addition to the Pace Edwards JackRabbit retractable truck bed cover for tradesmen who want an attractive, durable system for carrying tools and supplies. Designed for the Pace Edwards JackRabbit or Bedlocker equipped with Explorer Series rails, the Contractor Rig Rack features rigid aluminum truss construction and extension beams for longer loads. This rust-proof system features stainless steel hardware and a removable rear cross-member with a PVC insert for smooth, easy loading. Four load-securing work winches are also included. Pace Edwards: 888/640-5902; www.pace-edwards.com
	TAG–Raider Industries New Mid-Rise Cobra from Raider With added ceiling height and increased volume, the new mid-rise Cobra provides more room to protect and secure cargo—an advantage with today’s shorter cargo beds and smaller trucks. The 50/50 side sliding windows with screens provide maximum ventilation, while the oversize rear door uses double T-handle locks for trouble-free reliability. Raider options, including the famous Thule Roof Racks, provide additional security, cargo capacity and good looks. Raider Industries: www.raider.ca, 800/771-8677, info@raider.ca.
	Tru-Line Do wheel alignments using your standard 2-post lift. The TL-12 Deluxe Full 4-wheel system comes with stands, turntables and slip plates. You can do your alignment in any bay. A drive on a lift is not required. The TL-12 is an all American-made mechanical laser wheel alignment system. Add the dually one-ton kit and any and everything that rolls in will roll out straight. Want more information? Contact us: www.tru-line.net or 800/496-3777.
	Tru-Line Wheel alignment that is affordable even in hard economic times. It pays to be versatile and adaptable and to be known for never turning anyone away from your shop. Tru-Line’s TL-12 can be adapted to align anything from a sub-compact to a tractor and trailer. It is a simple, manual laser alignment system with a low cost of ownership and high return on investment. It is durable with some units still performing after 25 years! Want more information? Contact us: www.tru-line.net or toll-free at 800/496-3777.
	Van Sant Enterprises Van Sant Enterprises’ 2009 Trick Tools Spring catalog is 48 pages of high performance tools for the fabricator. This full-color catalog features the finest quality and most innovative selection of tube benders, notchers, saws, sheet metal machines and hand tools for the race car, motorcycle, off-road and hot-rod builder. Request a catalog or view our entire product line online at www.trick-tools.com or call us toll-free at 877/826-7268.
	White Knight Wheel Accessories White Knight Wheel Accessories is your one-stop source for your wheel accessory needs, offering the most comprehensive line of wheel accessories. We strongly recommend that you obtain your copy of Catalog #12. We have added new styles and thread sizes to our extensive lines of lug nuts, lug bolts and knurl studs. We have also added new valve stems and accessories, wheel weights, spacers and TPMS Replacement Sensors and related accessories. Contact us now to request your copy of Catalog #12. White Knight Wheel Accessories 800/343-8313 www.whtknight.com sales@whtknight.com

SEMA News - June 2009
Catalog and Product Showcase

To advertise in this section, contact Motor Media Inc. at 818/248-4449 or e-mail sales@motormediainc.com.

	Al’s Liner Al’s Liner Acrylic/Urethane Coating System for the do-it-yourself crowd! http://www.alsliner.com/ /800-999-6841 Al’s Liner is a high solids urethane coating offering users the ability to color match without top coating; the pigment is mixed in the material. You can easily vary the texture by adjusting application techniques and mixture ratios. Al’s provides, long-lasting protection, vibration and sound reduction plus the custom look no other DIY liner can.
	Al’s Liner Al’s Liner offers DIY Urethane systems for the automotive, home, shop and general application purposes. From your concrete patio or wood deck to the under body of your hot-rod restoration project, Al’s Liner has the coatings you need to get the protection and look you want and need. Feel free to contact us at 800/999-6841 or info@alsliner.com for more information.
	Bender Enterprises Inc. The Fast, The Fraudulent & The Fatal FRAUD ALERT! How does the dangerous and dark side of the modified car scene affect your business? Are your products on the radar? Find out the answers in The Fast, The Fraudulent & The Fatal. You will be shocked to find out what is really going on in the modified vehicle scene. F.A.S.T.-The Foundation for Automotive Safety and Trends Inc. http://protectourstreets.org/   VINtrack: http://vintrack.com/
	Carriage Works Dodge Challenger Bolt-Over Billet Grille Carriage Works is proud to announce a Bolt-Over Billet Grille for the new Dodge Challenger. These grilles are available separately and install in 30 minutes or less using simple hand tools—a quick and easy way to change the look of this hot, new musclecar. All Carriage Works accessories are proudly made in the USA and feature a world-class fit and finish. PN 44522 Upper and PN 44532 Lower. http://www.cwgrilles.com/
	Dick Cepek Tires & Wheels Dick Cepek’s 2009 catalog features all of their great products, including the Radial F-C II, Mud Country and the aggressive Crusher radial that has a unique broken bone tread design with skull and cross bone sidebiters. The new catalog has all the details on the hot, new Dick Cepek Torque wheel line as well as apparel and point-of-sale materials available to dealers. Dick Cepek Tires & Wheels 4600 Prosper Drive Road Stow, Ohio P. 800/222-9092 F. 330/928-0503 http://www.dickcepek.com/
	Green Filter Green Filter USA has been a leader in the automotive aftermarket during this past decade. Green offers a full range of filters for compact cars, luxury cars, sedans, minivans, trucks, SUVs, diesel trucks, ATVs, motorcycles and karts. And new to the Green Filter line is a full selection of cold air intakes for fullsize trucks, SUVs and diesel trucks. A number of top race teams and some of the world’s most prestigious performance companies use Green Filters. A high-performance air filter manufacturer for anything you race, ride or drive. For product and sales information, visit http://www.greenfilterusa.com/, contact company headquarters at 724/430-2050 or write to Green Filter USA at P.O. Box 149, Mt. Braddock, PA, 15465.
	Ground Force For nearly 30 years, Ground Force Suspension has been the leader in tuned lowering suspension systems for yesterday’s and today’s light trucks and SUVs. Serving both the OE and aftermarket, Ground Force is the only tuned suspension system provider for both 2WD and 4WD light trucks, SUVs and today’s hottest musclecars. Our lineup is composed of 100% designed, engineered and manufactured suspension systems, made here in the USA! Contact Ground Force for the hottest in suspension technology today! Ground Force Suspension 714 Braddock View Dr. Mt. Braddock, PA 15465 800/522-1511 http://www.groundforce.com/
	McGard McGard has been protecting the world’s finest wheels and tires from theft since 1964. Our wheel locks provide the highest level of protection against costly wheel and tire theft. Our lug nuts are built to last a lifetime. They are guaranteed not to rust, chip or peel. Our consistent high-quality insures the greatest value for our customer and is evident in every McGard product on the market today. Visit us at http://www.mcgard.com/ or call 800/669-6887.
	McGard Installation Kits Everything you need to install your new wheels in one convenient package! We’ve combined the best wheel and tire theft protection available with the highest-quality fully machined chrome plated lug nuts. Available with Tough Nut hex lug nuts or SplineDrive tuner lug nuts. Most kits include wheel locks & key tool, I.D. card, storage pouch and chrome sleeve valve stems. For more information, visit us at http://www.mcgard.com/ or call 800/669-6887.
	Mickey Thompson Performance Tires & Wheels Mickey Thompson’s new 2009 catalog features the entire line of Mickey Thompson tires & wheels for hot rodders, drag racers and truck and off-road enthusiasts. New for 2009 is the Sportsman S/T white letter radial for musclecars, the Pro-5 ET Drag wheel, and the hot, new SideBiter wheel. Get detailed specifications for all products, Mickey Thompson apparel and P.O.P. display materials. Mickey Thompson Performance Tires & Wheels 4600 Prosper Drive Road Stow, Ohio P. 800/222-9092 F. 330/928-0503 http://www.mickeythompsontires.com/
	Owens Products Inc. GlaStep Custom Fiberglass Running Boards GlaStep custom fiberglass running boards for the ’09 Dodge Ram 1500 are shipping! GlaStep running boards feature dense layers of hand-laid, premium-grade fiberglass with a primer gel-coat finish. Custom fit, easy to install and no-drill brackets provide fast installation and solid mounting. The application shown here is P/N 3171, a full-length running board for ’09 Dodge Ram 1500 Crew Cabs with a 5.7-foot box. All GlaStep running boards are available with Owens Precise Paint Program. Owens Products, Inc. 800/726-9367 http://www.owensproducts.com/
	Owens Products Inc. EXTREME Owens Paddle Latch Tool Box Series Check out these tool boxes! The EXTREME OWENS diamond-tread aluminum boxes feature an exclusive patented lid with a distinctive curve. The paddle latch series is offered in both a standard height as well as a low-profile design, which allows clear vision from the cab of the truck. All EXTREME Owens boxes feature extreme lid bracing, making this one of the toughest lids on the market. This series is offered in crossover, side-mount and chest-style boxes. Owens Products Inc. 800/726-9367 http://www.owensproducts.com/
	Professional Products 2009 Full Line Catalog Professional Products has just released an updated 2009 Catalog with all the latest new products, including the Powerjection III EFI System. The 2009 Catalog is all full-color and features every product offered by Professional Products, including their line of Powerflow Hose and Fittings. A number of new applications for Powerforce and Powerforce+Plus Harmonic Dampers are included plus Powerfilter Oil Filters, and the expanded line of fuel-injection systems and components. Professional Products 12705 S. Van Ness Ave. Hawthorne, CA 90250 323/779-2020 http://www.professional-products.com/
	Professional Products Unique Powerjection III EFI System The new Powerjection III is the SEMA Award winner that offers these features: 1) The industry’s most advanced fuel-injection system; 2) The easiest aftermarket fuel-injection system to install; 3) The first to offer “Adaptive Learning,” which means it is self-tuning while also laptop programmable if desired; 4) The least expensive full-featured EFI system available; 5) The only EFI with the computer integrated into the throttle body. The Powerjection III is the total package. Professional Products 12705 S. Van Ness Ave. Hawthorne, CA 90250 323/779-2020 www.professional-products.com
	ProRYDE Suspension Systems Leveling…with a TWIST! Winner SEMA 2009 BEST NEW OFF-ROAD/4x4 PRODUCT! ProRYDE announces the only complete line of on-vehicle ADJUSTABLE light-truck Leveling Kits. Whether the vehicle has a Strut-type or Torsion Bar suspension, the installer decides what the front ride height will be, from 2” to 3.5”, varying by application. Available for GM, Ford, Dodge, Nissan and Toyota. ProRYDE Suspension Systems www.ProRYDE.com 888/813-RYDE (7933)
	ROSS Racing Pistons ROSS Racing Pistons is celebrating its 30th year as one of the industries’ premier piston manufacturers, along with its numerous NMRA, NMCA and ADRL championships in 2008. ROSS has added several new designs and part numbers to its popular lineup for the 2009 catalog, including sport-compact, diesel, classic and antique pistons. ROSS also offers a complete line of rings, pins, locks and coatings. For a free catalog, e-mail sales@rosspistons.com and mention that you saw it in SEMA News.
	TAG–Century Fiberglass Inc. Cargo Cover–Century True Value The Cargo Cover from cap and tonneau manufacturer Century is ideal for truck enthusiasts who want to retain the classic profile of their pickup and secure the contents of their cargo bed. The graceful expanse of the high-gloss painted fiberglass turns an otherwise unprotected pickup bed into a huge lockable space to stow and transport gear. A new enter latch provides easy one-hand access to the interior. Owners note a gas mileage boost, too, as the cover reduces the turbulence of an open bed. For more info, contact Century Caps at www.centurycaps.com; kellyl@truckgroup.com; 800/828-2277.
	TAG–LEER LEER 700 Tonneau: The Pinnacle of Style and Quality One look at the remarkable integration of style and function will remind truck owners why the LEER 700 Series tonneau is the clear market leader. By artfully shaping the 700 to reflect key lines in each truck it fits, designers at LEER have set a standard for custom styling no competitor can match. Befitting its place as the top tonneau, the 700 is equipped with top-quality hardware and a premium list of standard features; adding keyless remote control to the exclusive LEER Twist Handle is a popular option. The LEER 700 is available for virtually every pickup on the road. LEER, www.leer.com; 574/522-5337 x377; leerinfo@leer.com.
	TAG–Pace Edwards Pace Edwards JackRabbit Retractable Cover with Contractor Rig Rack The Contractor Rig Rack is the perfect addition to the Pace Edwards JackRabbit retractable truck bed cover for tradesmen who want an attractive, durable system for carrying tools and supplies. Designed for the Pace Edwards JackRabbit or Bedlocker equipped with Explorer Series rails, the Contractor Rig Rack features rigid aluminum truss construction and extension beams for longer loads. This rust-proof system features stainless steel hardware and a removable rear cross-member with a PVC insert for smooth, easy loading. Four load-securing work winches are also included. Pace Edwards: 888/640-5902; www.pace-edwards.com
	TAG–Raider Industries New Mid-Rise Cobra from Raider With added ceiling height and increased volume, the new mid-rise Cobra provides more room to protect and secure cargo—an advantage with today’s shorter cargo beds and smaller trucks. The 50/50 side sliding windows with screens provide maximum ventilation, while the oversize rear door uses double T-handle locks for trouble-free reliability. Raider options, including the famous Thule Roof Racks, provide additional security, cargo capacity and good looks. Raider Industries: www.raider.ca, 800/771-8677, info@raider.ca.
	Tru-Line Do wheel alignments using your standard 2-post lift. The TL-12 Deluxe Full 4-wheel system comes with stands, turntables and slip plates. You can do your alignment in any bay. A drive on a lift is not required. The TL-12 is an all American-made mechanical laser wheel alignment system. Add the dually one-ton kit and any and everything that rolls in will roll out straight. Want more information? Contact us: www.tru-line.net or 800/496-3777.
	Tru-Line Wheel alignment that is affordable even in hard economic times. It pays to be versatile and adaptable and to be known for never turning anyone away from your shop. Tru-Line’s TL-12 can be adapted to align anything from a sub-compact to a tractor and trailer. It is a simple, manual laser alignment system with a low cost of ownership and high return on investment. It is durable with some units still performing after 25 years! Want more information? Contact us: www.tru-line.net or toll-free at 800/496-3777.
	Van Sant Enterprises Van Sant Enterprises’ 2009 Trick Tools Spring catalog is 48 pages of high performance tools for the fabricator. This full-color catalog features the finest quality and most innovative selection of tube benders, notchers, saws, sheet metal machines and hand tools for the race car, motorcycle, off-road and hot-rod builder. Request a catalog or view our entire product line online at www.trick-tools.com or call us toll-free at 877/826-7268.
	White Knight Wheel Accessories White Knight Wheel Accessories is your one-stop source for your wheel accessory needs, offering the most comprehensive line of wheel accessories. We strongly recommend that you obtain your copy of Catalog #12. We have added new styles and thread sizes to our extensive lines of lug nuts, lug bolts and knurl studs. We have also added new valve stems and accessories, wheel weights, spacers and TPMS Replacement Sensors and related accessories. Contact us now to request your copy of Catalog #12. White Knight Wheel Accessories 800/343-8313 www.whtknight.com sales@whtknight.com

SEMA News - June 2009
RESEARCH

By Megan McKernan

Indicators Show a Group That Bucks the Trends

Retail sales for the street-rod and custom niche experienced a 20% increase from 2004 to 2008. Courtesy Kevin Lee, Rod & Custom

Despite the reports of a down economy and economic woes, the hot-rod market is alive and well. Just ask the SEMA members who manufacture and install the parts or who build the hot rods. Enthusiasts are still adding to their collections, working on their project vehicles and purchasing upgrades for their hot rods.

The Hot-Rod Market

SEMA’s market research department continually gathers data on the nine different market niches that make up the automotive specialty-equipment industry. Three of these niches have a place in the hot-rod market: restoration, street performance, and street rod and custom. Each of these is segmented into accessories, performance, and wheels, tires and suspension.

Retail sales for the street-rod and custom niche experienced a 20% increase from 2004 to 2008. The percentage of change for 2008 over 2007 was much smaller than it had been year over year in the previous 10 years. Nevertheless, it represented a nearly 2% increase. The street-performance niche experienced a negligible decrease of less than 1% between 2007 and 2008, but retail sales remain 14% better than they were in 2004 and 24% greater than they were in 2000. The restoration niche experienced a 2.4% decrease in 2008 compared to 2007. However, as is the case with the other two niches, retail sales have increased since 2004, with a net change of 17%. The retail sales figures are evidence of overall growth in the hot-rod market over the last several years (see Chart 1 below).

Chart 1: According to the survey, over 40% of the hot rod enthusiasts purchased either a carburetor, intake manifold or exhaust headers

Health of the Market

This year’s Hotrod & Restoration Trade Show in Indianapolis was a great example of the health of the hot-rod market. The aisles were crowded with people, and the exhibitors and attendees were in good spirits. Matt Agosta, president of Steele Rubber Products, was “…very encouraged by the strong turnout of attendees. With a lot of negative media attention about the national economy, the hot-rod industry appeared to be strong.” John McLeod, owner of Classic Instruments, said of the Hotrod & Restoration Show, “It was the best one yet, hands down.”

Many manufacturers in attendance reported that their sales so far this year were flat or up in some cases, which is contrary to widespread reports that all markets are down. When asked about the current market, McLeod indicated that sales were relatively flat, with some products up and others down.

“Sticking by the best quality and best customer service and having the best employees is paying off for Classic Instruments,” McLeod said.

We also had the opportunity to ask jobbers and retailers some questions about the current state of their businesses. Sixty-five percent of those who answered our survey said that business was either flat or up so far this year.

There were 4,400 total registered attendees for the 2009 Hotrod & Restoration Trade Show, up 12% from 2008. One of the noticeable differences this year was the presence of paint and upholstery businesspeople, both at the attendee and exhibitor levels. Planet Color, for example, was a first-time exhibitor.

Many shops have diversified to cater to segments of the market that they had not previously included. As an example, shops that had worked strictly on street rods have decided to work on musclecars as well.

The hot-rod market has been, and will continue to be, a mainstay of the American culture. Courtesy Kevin Lee, Rod & Custom

“This year’s show was a great example of this trend,” said Travis Weeks, group publisher for Hotrod & Restoration magazine. “Many of the attendees represented hot-rod shops that have diversified their offerings, not only to include other vehicle types, but also to include other services such as paint and upholstery.”

Street rods, hot rods, musclecars and old drag cars are sold each year at auto auctions. In a down economy, one might expect that such auctions would be experiencing decreases in the number of attendees as well as the number of vehicles sold. However, there is evidence to the contrary. The Mecum Auction Company, which has been specializing in the sale of collector cars and musclecars for more than 20 years, had two successful events in recent months. The Kissimmee Auction, held January 22–24, 2009, in Kissimmee, Florida, broke last year’s sales and attendance records for the same event. In total, 750 cars representing a 58% rate were sold over a three-day period. Total gross sales for the auction reached $16.5 million, a 9% increase over the previous year. A ’64 Ford Galaxie hardtop with a 427ci engine sold for $205,000, and a ’53 Buick Skylark convertible sold for $135,000. In December of 2008, Mecum held an auction in Kansas City, Missouri. This event was also successful and boasted a 50% vehicle sold rate. Total gross sales, including the buyers’ premiums, reached more than $4 million for the weekend. The top-selling vehicle at this event (including the buyer’s premium) was a ’55 Chevrolet Bel Air resto mod that sold for $96,300.

“Mecum felt the downturn in the economy back in October,” said Dana Mecum, president of Mecum Auction. “However, business has been great from that point on. The goal of an auction is to connect buyers with sellers, and this is definitely a buyer’s market.”

Hot rodding has always been a hobby with a rich history of making old cars look cool, go fast and run loud. Recently, the hobby has also given enthusiasts an outlet to escape the doom and gloom that seems to be reported on a daily basis. Hot rodders may delay purchases of parts or the addition of another vehicle, but they will not give up the hobby. For many, hot rodding is not just about the car itself, but the people met at car shows and the culture surrounding the hobby. Jeanette Ladina, president of Flaming River Industries, emphasized the importance of a comment made during the grand-opening breakfast at the Hotrod & Restoration show: “The enthusiast will remain loyal to his/her hobby.”

Hot-Rod Enthusiasts

Each summer, SEMA’s market research department sends out its Automotive Lifestyles Survey to thousands of enthusiasts. The survey respondents have automotive interests ranging from hot rods and sport compacts to pickups. We looked at the following subset from the survey data in order to talk about hot-rod enthusiasts. This subset is qualified by the following:

• 100% indicated that they strongly agree with the statement “I am an automotive enthusiast.”
• They subscribe to at least one of these magazines: Hot Rod, Popular Hot Rodding, Rod & Custom, Super Chevy.
• They own a pre-’73 vehicle and presumably answered the survey questions with regard to that vehicle.
• They are “strongly interested” in musclecars and are “strongly interested” in hot rods.

Table 2: Sixty-five percent of hot-rod enthusiasts spent more than $1,000 on accessories and performance parts in a 12-month period.

Ninety-one percent of the hot-rod enthusiasts surveyed had purchased custom parts and accessories for their vehicles within the last year. Just under half (46%) of hot-rod enthusiasts owned a pre-’73 Chevy vehicle, followed by Ford with 28%. The majority of these vehicles, 54%, were ’65 through ’72 model-year vehicles. Ninety-seven percent of the respondents obtained their vehicles used, with only 11% overall indicating that they purchased the vehicle within the last 12 months (August 2007 to August 2008). Carburetors were the top products purchased by the hot-rod enthusiasts, with 43%, while exhaust kits were the top product planned for purchase, with 25% (see Table 1).

Thirty-four percent of hot-rod enthusiasts spent $5,000 or more on custom parts and accessories between August 2007 and August 2008 (see Table 2 above).

SEMA members have noted a continued interest in musclecars. “The trend of customization has grown into later models from the ’60s and ’70s, even the ’90s, not just the traditional hot rods,” said Agosta.

According to Experian, there are 802,578 Chrysler, Ford and General Motors vehicles, model years ’67–’72, registered in the United States. This statistic indicates to the hot-rod market that there are more than 800,000 cars and trucks waiting to be restored, customized, upgraded or even just maintained. Of those, there are 22,859 ’68 Camaros; 28,552 ’69 Camaros; and 28,814 ’67 Mustangs.

The hot-rod market has always and continues to be an integral piece of the overall automotive specialty-equipment industry. Vehicle customization was born out of the ideas and passions of early hot rodders. Enthusiasts will continue to participate in this market by attending car shows, purchasing accessories and performance products or purchasing a hot rod to add to or begin their collections. Hot rods are a part of the American culture.

According to the “2006 SEMA Hot Rod Industry Report,” “The most important thing needed to preserve hot rodding for future generations is the interest of the future generations themselves.” With so many pre-’73 vehicles registered in the United States and countless more waiting to be recovered from an old barn or shed, the hot-rod market has a bright future.

Chart 1: The hot-rod market niches have all experienced growth since 2004.

SEMA News - June 2009
RESEARCH

By Megan McKernan

Indicators Show a Group That Bucks the Trends

Retail sales for the street-rod and custom niche experienced a 20% increase from 2004 to 2008. Courtesy Kevin Lee, Rod & Custom

Despite the reports of a down economy and economic woes, the hot-rod market is alive and well. Just ask the SEMA members who manufacture and install the parts or who build the hot rods. Enthusiasts are still adding to their collections, working on their project vehicles and purchasing upgrades for their hot rods.

The Hot-Rod Market

SEMA’s market research department continually gathers data on the nine different market niches that make up the automotive specialty-equipment industry. Three of these niches have a place in the hot-rod market: restoration, street performance, and street rod and custom. Each of these is segmented into accessories, performance, and wheels, tires and suspension.

Retail sales for the street-rod and custom niche experienced a 20% increase from 2004 to 2008. The percentage of change for 2008 over 2007 was much smaller than it had been year over year in the previous 10 years. Nevertheless, it represented a nearly 2% increase. The street-performance niche experienced a negligible decrease of less than 1% between 2007 and 2008, but retail sales remain 14% better than they were in 2004 and 24% greater than they were in 2000. The restoration niche experienced a 2.4% decrease in 2008 compared to 2007. However, as is the case with the other two niches, retail sales have increased since 2004, with a net change of 17%. The retail sales figures are evidence of overall growth in the hot-rod market over the last several years (see Chart 1 below).

Chart 1: According to the survey, over 40% of the hot rod enthusiasts purchased either a carburetor, intake manifold or exhaust headers

Health of the Market

This year’s Hotrod & Restoration Trade Show in Indianapolis was a great example of the health of the hot-rod market. The aisles were crowded with people, and the exhibitors and attendees were in good spirits. Matt Agosta, president of Steele Rubber Products, was “…very encouraged by the strong turnout of attendees. With a lot of negative media attention about the national economy, the hot-rod industry appeared to be strong.” John McLeod, owner of Classic Instruments, said of the Hotrod & Restoration Show, “It was the best one yet, hands down.”

Many manufacturers in attendance reported that their sales so far this year were flat or up in some cases, which is contrary to widespread reports that all markets are down. When asked about the current market, McLeod indicated that sales were relatively flat, with some products up and others down.

“Sticking by the best quality and best customer service and having the best employees is paying off for Classic Instruments,” McLeod said.

We also had the opportunity to ask jobbers and retailers some questions about the current state of their businesses. Sixty-five percent of those who answered our survey said that business was either flat or up so far this year.

There were 4,400 total registered attendees for the 2009 Hotrod & Restoration Trade Show, up 12% from 2008. One of the noticeable differences this year was the presence of paint and upholstery businesspeople, both at the attendee and exhibitor levels. Planet Color, for example, was a first-time exhibitor.

Many shops have diversified to cater to segments of the market that they had not previously included. As an example, shops that had worked strictly on street rods have decided to work on musclecars as well.

The hot-rod market has been, and will continue to be, a mainstay of the American culture. Courtesy Kevin Lee, Rod & Custom

“This year’s show was a great example of this trend,” said Travis Weeks, group publisher for Hotrod & Restoration magazine. “Many of the attendees represented hot-rod shops that have diversified their offerings, not only to include other vehicle types, but also to include other services such as paint and upholstery.”

Street rods, hot rods, musclecars and old drag cars are sold each year at auto auctions. In a down economy, one might expect that such auctions would be experiencing decreases in the number of attendees as well as the number of vehicles sold. However, there is evidence to the contrary. The Mecum Auction Company, which has been specializing in the sale of collector cars and musclecars for more than 20 years, had two successful events in recent months. The Kissimmee Auction, held January 22–24, 2009, in Kissimmee, Florida, broke last year’s sales and attendance records for the same event. In total, 750 cars representing a 58% rate were sold over a three-day period. Total gross sales for the auction reached $16.5 million, a 9% increase over the previous year. A ’64 Ford Galaxie hardtop with a 427ci engine sold for $205,000, and a ’53 Buick Skylark convertible sold for $135,000. In December of 2008, Mecum held an auction in Kansas City, Missouri. This event was also successful and boasted a 50% vehicle sold rate. Total gross sales, including the buyers’ premiums, reached more than $4 million for the weekend. The top-selling vehicle at this event (including the buyer’s premium) was a ’55 Chevrolet Bel Air resto mod that sold for $96,300.

“Mecum felt the downturn in the economy back in October,” said Dana Mecum, president of Mecum Auction. “However, business has been great from that point on. The goal of an auction is to connect buyers with sellers, and this is definitely a buyer’s market.”

Hot rodding has always been a hobby with a rich history of making old cars look cool, go fast and run loud. Recently, the hobby has also given enthusiasts an outlet to escape the doom and gloom that seems to be reported on a daily basis. Hot rodders may delay purchases of parts or the addition of another vehicle, but they will not give up the hobby. For many, hot rodding is not just about the car itself, but the people met at car shows and the culture surrounding the hobby. Jeanette Ladina, president of Flaming River Industries, emphasized the importance of a comment made during the grand-opening breakfast at the Hotrod & Restoration show: “The enthusiast will remain loyal to his/her hobby.”

Hot-Rod Enthusiasts

Each summer, SEMA’s market research department sends out its Automotive Lifestyles Survey to thousands of enthusiasts. The survey respondents have automotive interests ranging from hot rods and sport compacts to pickups. We looked at the following subset from the survey data in order to talk about hot-rod enthusiasts. This subset is qualified by the following:

• 100% indicated that they strongly agree with the statement “I am an automotive enthusiast.”
• They subscribe to at least one of these magazines: Hot Rod, Popular Hot Rodding, Rod & Custom, Super Chevy.
• They own a pre-’73 vehicle and presumably answered the survey questions with regard to that vehicle.
• They are “strongly interested” in musclecars and are “strongly interested” in hot rods.

Table 2: Sixty-five percent of hot-rod enthusiasts spent more than $1,000 on accessories and performance parts in a 12-month period.

Ninety-one percent of the hot-rod enthusiasts surveyed had purchased custom parts and accessories for their vehicles within the last year. Just under half (46%) of hot-rod enthusiasts owned a pre-’73 Chevy vehicle, followed by Ford with 28%. The majority of these vehicles, 54%, were ’65 through ’72 model-year vehicles. Ninety-seven percent of the respondents obtained their vehicles used, with only 11% overall indicating that they purchased the vehicle within the last 12 months (August 2007 to August 2008). Carburetors were the top products purchased by the hot-rod enthusiasts, with 43%, while exhaust kits were the top product planned for purchase, with 25% (see Table 1).

Thirty-four percent of hot-rod enthusiasts spent $5,000 or more on custom parts and accessories between August 2007 and August 2008 (see Table 2 above).

SEMA members have noted a continued interest in musclecars. “The trend of customization has grown into later models from the ’60s and ’70s, even the ’90s, not just the traditional hot rods,” said Agosta.

According to Experian, there are 802,578 Chrysler, Ford and General Motors vehicles, model years ’67–’72, registered in the United States. This statistic indicates to the hot-rod market that there are more than 800,000 cars and trucks waiting to be restored, customized, upgraded or even just maintained. Of those, there are 22,859 ’68 Camaros; 28,552 ’69 Camaros; and 28,814 ’67 Mustangs.

The hot-rod market has always and continues to be an integral piece of the overall automotive specialty-equipment industry. Vehicle customization was born out of the ideas and passions of early hot rodders. Enthusiasts will continue to participate in this market by attending car shows, purchasing accessories and performance products or purchasing a hot rod to add to or begin their collections. Hot rods are a part of the American culture.

According to the “2006 SEMA Hot Rod Industry Report,” “The most important thing needed to preserve hot rodding for future generations is the interest of the future generations themselves.” With so many pre-’73 vehicles registered in the United States and countless more waiting to be recovered from an old barn or shed, the hot-rod market has a bright future.

Chart 1: The hot-rod market niches have all experienced growth since 2004.