The latest Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI) for May dropped to a reading of 46, a 10-point decline from April’s reading and a 31-point decline from May 2007. Currently, a total of 12%, or 12 million households, indicate plans to purchase specialty equipment over the next three months.

The charts below show both the index values (black line, values on the left of graph) as well as the percent of consumers indicating that they plan to purchase specialty equipment in the next three months (blue-dashed line, values on the right of graph).

Despite a slight uptick in consumer sentiment regarding the economy, according to Technometrica’s TIPP Economic Optimism Index, consumers are feeling less confident about purchasing performance parts and accessories for their vehicles. Tax rebate checks have left many Americans feeling slightly more optimistic about their finances in April, but many consumers are either saving their money or paying bills with their rebate check. As a consequence, specialty-equipment purchase plans did not increase with consumer economic optimism.

Approximately 7% of consumers surveyed plan to purchase wheel, tire and suspension products within the next three months, representing an index value of 35. The index value for this product category has remained flat over the last two months, but dropped 53% compared to May 2007.

In addition to wheel, tire and suspension product purchase plans, the same percentage of consumers (7%, index of 79) also plan to purchase racing and performance products, a 9% decrease from May 2007. This represents a 7% increase over last month, however, it is also an indication that more consumers may be thinking about gas-saving performance products, such as high-flow air filters, for their vehicles.

While the racing and performance product segment may experience a slight resurgence, consumers are less inclined to purchase appearance and accessory products over the next three months. Approximately 6% (index of 71) of consumers surveyed plan to purchase products from this market segment in the near future. This represents a 30% drop compared to the percent of consumers that planned to purchase accessory and appearance products in May 2007.

Over the last three months, on average, pickups were the most common target vehicles for enhancement or modification (28%), followed by compact cars (16%), fullsize cars (15%) and midsize cars (14%).

On average, the Internet was the most popular purchase destination among those planning to enhance their vehicles over the last three months (20%), followed by independent parts stores (18%), car dealerships (16%) and chain auto parts stores (11%).

When specialty-equipment buyers were asked what form their vehicle would take after customization, the most common answer was “general personalization” (44%), followed by “restoration” (20%), “hot rod” (14%), “off-road” (10%) and “street performance” (6%).

Methodology
Although similar to economic indexes, the index SEMA has been working on is not designed to report past activity, but rather consumers’ expectations of future purchases from our industry.

The Indices track consumers’ plans to purchase performance parts and/or accessories within the next three months after each respective survey. This will help provide a rough forecast for demand of specialty equipment in the near future.

The SEMA PADI, and each of the three sub-indices, is a weighted composite index computed relative to its own baseline value, calculated by taking an average of January through March 2007 raw percentages. This average is then set to 100, and each month’s index is computed relative to the change from its baseline.

The indices and their movements are projectable to the national market for specialty-equipment products, which consists of over 114 million U.S. households.

SEMA has contracted with TechnoMetrica to gather the data used in building and maintaining the SEMA Performance Parts and Accessories Demand Index (PADI). Each month TechnoMetrica uses a Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to collect the survey data in order to provide a nationally representative sample of U.S. consumers. Typically, the responses total between 850 and 1,000 in any given month. The margin of error is normally within the plus or minus 3%–4% range.

Although the PADI is not a precise measure of absolute future purchasing activity, it is nonetheless a tool for understanding and predicting industry sales. There are two ways of interpreting the PADI. First is its "direction," whether the index is rising or falling. Second, the values themselves provide a guide as to the degree of change in consumer expectations for purchasing industry products.

For more original SEMA market research, visit www.sema.org/research.

Gas prices have increased on average $.35 between April 28 and May 26, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Energy. The sentiment towards the increase in energy costs has been compounded by economic woes and a housing market that's hurting. According to a recent survey commissioned by SEMA during the first week of May, the cost of gas could be a deciding factor in when to buy a specialty-equipment part.

SEMA asked automotive enthusiasts—subscribers to automotive enthusiast magazines and automotive website visitors—if the price of gas has caused a delay in the purchase of custom parts and accessories for their vehicle. Half of the respondents stated that it did, followed by 46% that said no, and 4% were unsure. This is probably because higher gas prices are causing a decrease in the amount of discretionary money that enthusiasts have available and it is taking more time to save for a specialty-equipment part.

However, the same survey showed that automotive enthusiasts would have to be paying on average $4.94 at the pump to curb their specialty-equipment purchases. The specialty-equipment industry relies heavily on discretionary income and the enthusiasts that have income available to them to modify their vehicles and make other lifestyle enhancements. The average household income was $96,700, with more than 20% of the sample making more than $105,000 per year, according to the survey.

The Energy Information Administration is projecting a decrease in consumer demand for fossil fuel products.

According to the Energy Information Administration website, U.S. consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum is expected to decline in 2008 by about 190,000 barrels/day as a result of the economic slowdown and high petroleum prices. After accounting for increased ethanol use, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 330,000 barrels/day in 2008.”

Usually in an open market, consumer demand dictates product prices. Fuel costs have followed a different trend. Prices have been increasing as demand decreases.

Automotive customization is often associated as a lifestyle habit for enthusiasts, one that continues to be fueled despite rising fuel costs. Many enthusiasts look at personalizing their vehicles as long-term investments in helping to increase the overall performance, fuel economy and appearance of their vehicles.

Increasing gas prices may alter driving habits and cause some consumers to hold off purchases until economic conditions improve, however.

For more original SEMA market research, visit www.sema.org/research.

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SEMA has recently added a new search function to its website, one of many changes to come that are part of a continuous effort to ensure efficiency and provide the best online experience for its members.

“The new search function represents one small step in the ongoing changes to SEMA.org,” said Peter MacGillivray, vice president of communications and events at SEMA.

Additional changes planned for the SEMA website include easier log-in and password retrieval, the ability to personalize the website, and an area for professional networking. 

"The SEMA website is a great way for members to monitor the activity of the aftermarket industry and access relevant market data. I will definitely be taking advantage of all the new changes," said Tracie Nuñez, chair-elect of SEMA’s Street Performance Council, which will be presenting the SEMA Internet Symposium in July 2008.

For any questions or comments, please contact Peter MacGillivray at PeterM@sema.org.

Try out SEMA’s new website search function at www.sema.org.

U.S. consumers purchased an unprecedented $38.11 billion of specialty automotive products in 2007, despite a lag in the general U.S. economy. That figure is a 3.78% increase from 2006 to 2007, and it represents the 17th consecutive year of growth.

Comprehensive details and information are included in the annual SEMA Market Study, one of several industry-specific research reports produced by SEMA. The 41-page study includes details on nine market niches, various market segments, as well as an analysis of where consumers are purchasing products.

“Industry sales have grown at rates that are two to three times of what might have been expected,” says SEMA Vice President of Market Research and Information Jim Spoonhower, who points out that the automotive specialty-equipment market has averaged an 8% growth rate over the last 10 years. That’s nearly twice the annual rate of 4.1% for the total aftermarket.

Spoonhower notes, however, that the 2007 increase is a significantly smaller increase than what the industry has had in recent years.
 
“As we look over the recorded history of industry numbers, we find only three periods of soft sales growth,” said Spoonhower. “The first was in 1991, when the industry was hit doubly hard by a soft economy and the first Gulf War. The second came 10 years later in 2001 when the industry saw an increase of less than 4%. We’re now entering our third period of soft sales, with an increase of 3.78%—a smaller increase compared to what the industry is used to.”

Given the overall U.S. economy, SEMA has anticipated a slowdown and is prepared to help its members persevere. At its annual State of the Association meeting held earlier this year, SEMA’s leadership encouraged its members to look to the association during tough economic times.

“SEMA can help companies who are looking for high-quality, affordable training solutions, or those who are struggling with complex vehicle technology and new vehicle models,” said SEMA Vice President of Events and Communications Peter MacGillivray. Free educational programs, legislative support and export assistance are a few of the programs that MacGillivray cites as easy, affordable options for expanding one’s market.

“The typical SEMA-member company is an enthusiast who enters the industry because of a love and passion for automobiles,” said MacGillivray. “These companies typically have small staffs and operate on lean budgets. SEMA’s programs and services serve as an extension to their staffs and fill a vital void.”

Comprehensive details on the size of the automotive specialty-equipment market and other industry trends can be found in the June 2008 issue of SEMA News. Articles from the publication are available online at www.semanews.com.

The International Association of Exhibitions and Events (IAEE) has reason to believe that www.expo-guide.com, a company operating out of Mexico, is targeting SEMA Show exhibitors and SEMA members to purchase a three-year commitment of advertising that is cleverly disguised as an offer of a free directory listing.

At this time, the IAEE has not determined if the Mexico operation is just a facade for Construct Data/Fairguide or if it is unrelated. Nevertheless, the operations of the two companies are remarkably similar. IAEE reports that Expo-Guide is actively targeting the exhibitor databases of many IAEE-member events. With this information, SEMA is warning members and exhibitors to be on the look out for this bogus offer of a free directory listing that may result in a three-year commitment costing about $1,500 annually. 

The offer is in an all-too familiar format: "Verify that our information about your company is correct and you get a free listing in the exhibitor directory." However, the offer is a cleverly constructed three-year ad commitment for $4,500 that results in endless harassment and collection demands.

For more information, contact Gary Vigil at garyv@sema.org.

Emcee Dave McClelland hosts proceedings at the 2007 SEMA Installation Banquet & Gala Fundraiser.

The annual SEMA Installation Banquet & Gala Fundraiser on Friday, July 25, serves to not only thank the association's outgoing Board members and welcome those newly elected, but also to announce the newest inductees into the SEMA Hall of Fame. This year's inductees are Raymond Bleiweis, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Corky Coker and Bob Cook—an elite group of industry innovators and pioneers who have played a key role in the automotive specialty-equipment market.

This year's event is further underscored by a program of charitable fundraising activities that includes a golf tournament, the Pinewood Drag Race and a silent auction.

Proceeds from all fundraising benefits SEMA's two chosen charities, Childhelp and Victory Junction Gang Camp. Childhelp aids victims of child abuse and originally began receiving support from wheel manufacturers in 1994; it now garners significant contributions from a wide range of industry businesses.

Victory Junction Gang Camp, founded in 2004 by Kyle and Pattie Petty in honor of their son Adam, has received support from the Light-Truck Accessory Alliance and others in the industry. Victory Junction uses camping experiences in its racing-themed facilities to enrich the lives of children who suffer from chronic medical conditions or illnesses.

Golf Tournament
The golf tournament begins at 7:00 a.m. on Friday, July 25, at the Strawberry Farms Golf Club in Irvine, California. SEMA council members are among those refining their game to challenge for the Council Cup Perpetual Trophy, a friendly competition among councils to prove who has the better hackers.

A special "Council Package" price of $2,000 (a $300 discount) is available for Council Cup competitors. The package includes four rounds of golf at the tournament and dinner for four at the annual banquet and gala charity auction, to be held that evening at the Irvine Hyatt Hotel. At least one active council member must participate in the golf tournament foursome to be eligible for this special pricing offer.

Any foursome consisting of two or more active council members will automatically be entered in the Council Cup Challenge representing their council (be sure to indicate on your registration form which council you are representing).

To register for the golf tournament, click here.

Pinewood Drag Race
The Installation Banquet & Gala Fundraiser will also feature the inaugural SEMA Pinewood Drag Race Sponsored by Fellers and DUB Publishing. The checkered flag will drop prior to the SEMA Hall of Fame recognition and fundraising activities. According to Race Director Mike Spagnola, the inaugural event will feature three race classes: Stock, Modified and Unlimited.

Those interested in building a Pinewood Drag Race car with the children from Childhelp can join SEMA for a special trip to The Village of Childhelp West in Beaumont, California, where participants can help the kids sand, paint and assemble cars that will run in the Pinewood Drag Race. Contact Mike Spagnola at mike@streetsceneeq.com for details.

For further information about the race and its rules, click here.

Tickets
Tickets and details for the SEMA Installation Banquet & Gala Fundraiser, including a schedule of activities, golf tournament entries and auction donation forms, are available at www.sema.org/gala or by contacting Lisa Moreno at lisam@sema.org or 909/396-0289, ext. 105.

Charity Auction
Finally, SEMA will host a live and silent auction prior to the banquet, with auction items ranging from sports memorabilia to a 2006 Victory motorcycle owned and donated by Kyle Petty. To donate an item, contact Tricia Ward at triciaw@sema.org. Some of the items include:


Kyle Petty's 2006 Victory Jackpot motorcycle. Donated by Kyle Petty Charity Ride.


Brett Favre-autographed Wilson football. Donated by Rick Rollins.


Gift certificate for a set (four) of Mickey Thompson truck tires up to 35 inches tall. Donated by Mickey Thompson Performance Tire.

Greer Black Dragster replica, 1:6 scale and over 28 inches long. Donated by GMP Die Cast.

Planet Hollywood, Las Vegas—3-day/2-night package. Donated by Planet Hollywood.

2x8 advertising space for one year on the guardwall of Virginia Motorsports Park's dragstrip, home of the Torco Racing Fuels NHRA Nationals. Donated by Virginia Motorsports Park.

HPI Racing Wheely King 4x4 R/C monster truck, featuring 4WD drivetrain, long-travel suspension and a high-torque 540 motor (click here for more details). Also offered in the auction are the E10 R/C drift car and Subaru Impreza precision diecast. Donated by HPI Racing.

Other items include:

• (4) Saturday Top Eliminator Club tickets (TEC) and (1) TEC parking pass for either the 2008 Automobile Club of Southern California NHRA Finals or the 2009 Carquest Auto Parts NHRA Winternationals, VIP tour and a ride in the Full Throttle Express. Donated by NHRA.

• GPI (Great Plains Industries) Bulk Oil transfer pump, 115v and 16 quarts-per-minute flow rate. Includes hose, nozzle and suction pipe (intended use: dispensing non-flammable fluids such as waste oil, hydraulic fluids, antifreeze and oil-based solvents). Mounts directly to tanks or barrels. Donated by GPI.

• (2) Half-hour golf lessons with pro Scott Miller at North Ranch Country Club, Westlake Village, California. Donated by Scott Miller/PGA.
  

• (2) daily tickets to any two days of the 2008 Chevron World Challenge Event (December 18–21, 2008) at Sherwood Country Club. For more details, click here. Donated by Joe Reda, Tiger Woods Foundation.
  

• Thermal Flex high-performance silicone hose (winning bidder contacts Thermal Flex for desired sizes and colors). Donated by Thermal Flex.

•  A signed copy of "How to Wire Your Hot-Rod" by author Dennis Overholser. Donated by Dennis Overholser of Painless Performance.

The SEMA Board of Directors has approved Street Performance Council (SPC) as the replacement for the Sport-Compact Council (SCC) name. The council’s current Select Committee recommended the change to better serve its members in the extremely diverse street-performance industry. The council is committed to maintaining its mission statement and current objectives—to provide market information, education and support members concerning new and emerging trends. This council name represents a broader market and provides new growth and educational opportunities for the diverse council membership.

SPC Chairman Eric Breslow remarks, “As SEMA itself has expanded to include different facets of the automotive aftermarket, the street-performance parts manufacturers and distributors didn’t have an exclusive council representing their interests. Some gravitated to the Sport-Compact Council, but with our new name, member benefits and initiatives, we welcome those diverse companies with open arms.” 

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