Gazing Into the Crystal Ball (With Some Educated Guesses)

By Steve Campbell

Foremost among our fortune-telling tools is the SEMA Show itself. Those who attended last November may be aware that SEMA bestowed a series of awards on select vehicles at the 2010 event. The awards for Hottest Car, Hottest Truck and Hottest 4x4-SUV of the Show were actually selected by the exhibitors based on the number of each model displayed in the exhibit spaces. As SEMA President and CEO Chris Kersting put it: “A booth space is a ballot, and the models these exhibitors selected represent their votes.”

The 2010 SEMA Show featured more than 1,900 exhibiting companies, and the three awards were bestowed upon the Chevrolet Camaro, Ford F-Series and Jeep Wrangler. Those are three perennial all-stars for the specialty-equipment industry, and they have been at or near the top of their categories in sales for decades, in some cases. But, we also wanted to dig further into the list of SEMA Indicators to see if there might be other candidates that automotive retailers ought to be conscious of as the year progresses.

Technology Downloads

The SEMA Technology Transfer program is one of the most popular tools available to manufacturing companies. It allows members to request data, such as CAD files, from the SEMA website. The files can be processed directly into the manufacturers’ computers and production machinery, allowing them to eliminate reverse engineering and proceed directly to prototyping components and assemblies. Companies that utilize Tech Transfer shorten their design time, save thousands of dollars and get their products into the marketplace quicker. By counting the number of requests for each vehicle, we get a kind of poll about the way members plan to spend their R&D dollars. Oscar Muñoz, who administers the program, said that the association received 522 requests from 164 members during the final quarter of 2010.

“Without doubt, data for the Camaro, the Corvette and the Mustang were the most requested,” Muñoz said. “New engines are very popular, and the data being requested included cylinder blocks, the intake tract from the air intake to the cylinder heads, internal parts and engine accessory drives. We’ve seen requests from all of the supercharger companies for the engines and surrounding body panels in those three cars. At the moment, I would gauge musclecars and trucks—both light-duty and heavy-duty—among the vehicles of greatest interest to SEMA members.”

Muñoz said that there have also been a number of truly unique requests that may be indicative of vehicle trends. For instance, several producers of electric and hybrid vehicles have asked for files on complete frame and suspension assemblies as well as drivetrain parts for the ’10 Camaro, ’10 Corvette, ’10 Mustang, ’06 E-250, ’08 Focus and ’08 F-150.

		The winner and still champion, Ford’s F-Series pickups were the best-selling vehicles in America for 24 consecutive years and the best-selling trucks for more than three decades. The perennial all-star not only ranked high in downloads from the SEMA Tech Transfer program and was the subject of the best-attended SEMA Measuring Session last year, but it also won the 2010 SEMA Award in the truck division. With so many units out there and so many variations on how a pickup can be customized, it’s a good bet that the F-Series will stay hot among manufacturers in 2WD, 4x4 and heavy-duty work-truck categories.
		The Jeep Wrangler is another perpetual favorite among enthusiasts as well as the general public, and it took the 2010 SEMA Award for being the most ubiquitous 4x4-SUV at the SEMA Show. The Wrangler can be ordered with either of two 4WD systems and heavy-duty axles. The 3.8L V6 may be mated to a six-speed manual or a four-speed automatic transmission. The Wrangler caters to enthusiasts who require off-road equipment, not to mention drivetrain upgrades, so it has been a strong source of parts sales in spite of dips in the economy.
		The Chevrolet Corvette—America’s Sports Car—has been an enthusiast favorite since the first one rolled off the assembly line in 1953. The latest version has been the subject of numerous inquiries to SEMA’s Technology Transfer program. This factory hot rod has turned 190 mph on the track. It’s fitted standard with a 6.2L LS3 aluminum-block V8 and is a slick beast, with a drag coefficient of only .286. Corvette owners, while smaller in number than some cars, are typically enthusiastic about performance upgrades.

Another SEMA Indicator comes from a program that is a companion piece to Tech Transfer. SEMA Measuring Sessions allow member companies to gain hands-on access to near-production prototype vehicles directly from participating automakers in order to collect surface data. These sessions are generally held at the automaker’s facilities and provide attendees with the opportunity to talk directly with original-equipment manufacturer (OEM) engineers.

SEMA holds about 20 Measuring Sessions each year. By looking at how many manufacturers send measuring teams, we get a sense of where industry interest is focused. According to Bill Wolf, SEMA’s senior director of OEM relations, the companies that attend Measuring Sessions tend to be manufacturers of wheels, suspensions, interior and body accessories, mobile electronics and performance powertrain parts.

“These companies are interested in time savings and engineering and design cost savings,” Wolf said. “They can spend more time with a vehicle at a Measuring Session than if they were to borrow it from a dealer. The sessions that were the most well attended were those for vehicles such as the Camaro, Mustang, Scion tC and Mazda2, along with Ford, Ram, Chevy/GMC trucks.”

The best attended of the most recent sessions were those for the ’10 Camaro in the musclecar category, ’11 Ford F-Series in the truck field, ’12 Ford Explorer in the SUV group, Honda CR-Z in the sporty-car class, and Chevrolet Cruze compact sedan. The best-attended gathering of all is no surprise—it was a two-day session in Dearborn, Michigan, that featured the new Ford F-Series.

The New Product Launch Data and Buyer Interest

Another relevant statistic comes from the SEMA Show New Products Showcase, where manufacturers highlight their newest products. By counting the relative frequency of brand-specific product launches, and looking at which categories were most clicked on, we can get a picture of R&D investments made in 2010, and what retailers will be selling in 2011 and beyond. It’s an inexact measurement because so many products are offered without mentioning any specific application, and it ignores entire categories such as street rods and restoration parts. Still, the results confirm the other indicators.

For example, there were at least 83 Ford Mustang-specific product offerings, and 76 product descriptions that mentioned the word “Camaro.” Jeep Wrangler was third with 31 applications. The fullsize pickups were all about the same in terms of new applications: the F-Series had 15 new products; Ram had 14; and a search for Chevy Silverado turned up 14 new products. The somewhat lower numbers for the pickups suggests there are many products that are generic, such as bed boxes, lights or winches. Other models that turned up frequently in product descriptions were Toyota FJ Cruiser, Nissan 370Z, BMW, Range Rover, Corvette, Subaru WRX and Honda Civic.

Another more exact insight comes from buyer card-swipe data, indicating which categories were of greatest interest to buyers at the Show. Among registered buyers at the 2010 Show, the top 10 hot categories were, in order: wheels; exterior accessories; suspension and steering; waxes and polish; engines and engine parts; brake systems; tires and tire accessories; exhaust systems; interior accessories; and lubricants. This represents a bit of a shift from 2009, when engines and engine parts were the number one category among buyers.

By combining the two observations, it seems clear that wheels, suspension components and engine parts for musclecars, Jeeps and pickups will be fertile ground for manufacturers and retailers in 2011.

Spy Shot Clicks

New vehicles that are near release or are on the horizon also pique interest as SEMA Indicators. A feature called “Spy Photos” in the association’s SEMA eNews weekly electronic newsletter has developed a devoted following. Each week, Brenda Priddy and her band of surreptitious shooters capture a few unauthorized frames of test vehicles that the automakers have out on the roads but aren’t quick ready for the general public to see. Jason Catullo, the newsletter’s associate editor, said that five such shots created considerable spikes in viewership in the last year. Logically, these are the vehicles that specialty manufacturers find most interesting.

The Ford Taurus SHO tallied top interest, followed by the announcement that the Chevy Malibu would be receiving a turbocharger, an Australian version of the Ford Falcon, the Chevrolet Volt and the Acura TL.

“On a general note, our readers are most interested in domestic models,” Catullo said. “Ten domestic models that scored higher than average in the last year included the Chevrolet Camaro Z/28, an SRT8 development vehicle, the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the Cadillac CTS Wagon, the Ford F-150 Raptor, the Volt, the Australian Ford, the Malibu with Turbo and the Taurus SHO. Even though only four truck or SUV photos ran during the entire year, they all scored higher than average and were all domestic.”

		The Chevrolet Cruze led in Measuring Session attendance for its compact sedan class. The Cruze is touted by Chevrolet as having the “spaciousness and amenities of a midsize car with the fuel economy of a compact.” It’s powered by either a 1.4L Ecotec turbocharged engine or the standard 1.8L Ecotec and includes electronic stability control with rollover sensing and traction control.
		Tech Transfer data on the Mustang was also among the most requested, and the GT500 version ranked very high in auction searches on eBay. The Mustang GT is equipped with a 412hp 5.0L V8 engine and a six-speed manual transmission, while the base V6 delivers 305 hp and 31 mpg. There was a large number of customized Mustangs at the SEMA Show in 2010, and a significant factor in parts launches as seen in the New Products Showcase.

Our final specific-vehicle indicator comes from eBay. We asked the highly trafficked auction site to let us in on the top makes and models viewed in the past six months, and this time, the results were surprising. The top search topic was the high-zoot Maybach, with replicas and kits based on Porsches and Corvettes in second place. When we asked about views for domestic vehicles, eBay’s experts told us that the top five most-viewed vehicles were the Tesla Roadster, Shelby GT 500, Galatea kit car, Hummer line and various Cadillac models.

In a more general sense on the international front, Reuters reported in February that the global auto market was on an upswing. Of course, that was prior to the latest unrest in the Middle East and the resulting uncertainty in fuel prices, but it’s worth noting that the emerging markets were looking more positive and U.S. sales were stronger, both of which affect total global sales. Toyota, the world’s number-one auto manufacturer, raised its expectations based on stronger projections and cost-cutting measures, and Reuters said that Toyota was forecasting better-than-expected sales in Asia, Japan and Russia.

Reuters also reported that BMW unit sales rose 28% in January and expected to reach its target of selling more than 1.5 million units in 2011. Daimler, meanwhile, was aiming to sell the highest number of cars in the company’s history, with Mercedes-Benz sales rising 23.1% in January. And Audi posted a global sales increase of 22.6%, continuing to grow in both China and the United States. That tells us that the luxury side of the market is coming back, after a long dormant period.

Fuel Prices: The Wild Card

Another indicator that may trump the rest is the price of fuel. We’ve been seeing a steady climb over the past few months, and there is nothing in the near future that portends a shift back southward. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA; U.S. Department of Energy) said in February—even before the revolutionary goings-on in the Middle East—that the average price of a barrel of crude oil would rise from about $93 in 2011 ($14 higher than the average in 2010) to $99 in the fourth quarter of 2012. That translates to $3.17 per gallon for regular-grade gas this year ($.39 higher than last year) and $3.29 per gallon in 2011 but about $.05 higher in the peak driving season of April through September. Things are so uncertain, however, that the EIA is hedging its bets with a further 25% probability prediction that prices could exceed $3.50 per gallon in the 2011 peak period and an 8%–10% probability that they could exceed $4 per gallon during the peak, with diesel prices rising even higher in each forecast.

If you believe fuel prices are going up, you might expect the sales of fullsize SUVs and pickups to go down. According to a National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) used-car guide industry update in January, if fuel prices continue to increase, consumer demand may again shift toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, which could lead to a softening of prices for larger, more fuel-inefficient ones. “While it doesn’t appear that we’ll experience significant fuel-related shocks over the course of the next 12 months,” the NADA guide said, “the anticipated increases in the cost of fuel will most likely be enough to stifle the two-year explosion in prices enjoyed by certain truck segments.”

The best-attended SEMA Measuring Session for an SUV in 2010 was the one held for the Ford Explorer. The Explorer comes with the very popular MyFord Touch driver-connect technology and SYNC integrated communications and entertainment system as well as stability and curve control technology, and it lays claim to best-in-class fuel economy, which could be an increasingly bigger deal as oil prices continue to escalate. The Explorer is likely to become a high-volume SUV, which could lead to significant demand for upgrades in 2012 and beyond.		The Honda CR-Z made our list of hottest vehicles for 2011 by virtue of leading the Measuring Session attendance in the sporty-car class. The CR-Z two-passenger coupe is a gasoline-electric hybrid that pairs a 1.5L i-VTEC four-cylinder engine and a compact and lightweight Integrated Motor Assist system. It’s available with a six-speed manual transmission or an automatic continuously variable automatic.		The Ford Taurus SHO tallied the greatest number of clicks in the popular “Spy Photos” SEMA eNews feature. The weekly electronic newsletter’s subscribers were obviously interested in the renewal of the Super High Output (SHO) vehicle, which is powered by an EcoBoost twin-turbocharged engine that generates an estimated 365 hp at 5,500 rpm and 350 lb.-ft. of torque at 3,500 rpm. Though it’s early in the year, the Taurus SHO has already won several awards, and as a high-performance car, it’s logical to predict popularity among enthusiasts who will customize.
The Tesla Roadster electric supercar was the most-viewed domestically produced vehicle on the eBay online auction site over a six-month period from September 2010 to February 2011. The Roadster is hand built and skinned in carbon fiber. Its electric powertrain, which produces zero emissions, propels the car to a top speed of 125 mph and accelerates to 60 mph from a standing start in 3.7 seconds. Its onboard charger can be plugged in to any 110- or 220-volt electrical outlet. Given time, it could be a player in the “driving green” segment of the aftermarket.		Sheer popularity: The Toyota Corolla/Matrix was the top-selling car in the United States during January 2011, according to Automotive News. All models are equipped with the 1.8L DOHC four-cylinder engine, which can be ordered with a five-speed manual transmission or a four-speed automatic. Corollas are also equipped with an electronic stability control system and traction control. The Corolla shares platform components with the more enthusiast-oriented Matrix; between the two, specialty parts manufacturers can expect a high-volume market.		Pickups, perhaps the ultimate generic automotive commodity, will continue to be ripe for lowering, lifting and outfitting for towing. Although the ’10 F-Series pickups seemed to generate the most interest, Chevy Silverado/GMC Sierra and Ram pickups are high-volume opportunities with higher-than-average rates of adaptation using specialty equipment. Approximately equal numbers of new products were launched in 2010 for each of the three models.

Gazing Into the Crystal Ball (With Some Educated Guesses)

By Steve Campbell

Foremost among our fortune-telling tools is the SEMA Show itself. Those who attended last November may be aware that SEMA bestowed a series of awards on select vehicles at the 2010 event. The awards for Hottest Car, Hottest Truck and Hottest 4x4-SUV of the Show were actually selected by the exhibitors based on the number of each model displayed in the exhibit spaces. As SEMA President and CEO Chris Kersting put it: “A booth space is a ballot, and the models these exhibitors selected represent their votes.”

The 2010 SEMA Show featured more than 1,900 exhibiting companies, and the three awards were bestowed upon the Chevrolet Camaro, Ford F-Series and Jeep Wrangler. Those are three perennial all-stars for the specialty-equipment industry, and they have been at or near the top of their categories in sales for decades, in some cases. But, we also wanted to dig further into the list of SEMA Indicators to see if there might be other candidates that automotive retailers ought to be conscious of as the year progresses.

Technology Downloads

The SEMA Technology Transfer program is one of the most popular tools available to manufacturing companies. It allows members to request data, such as CAD files, from the SEMA website. The files can be processed directly into the manufacturers’ computers and production machinery, allowing them to eliminate reverse engineering and proceed directly to prototyping components and assemblies. Companies that utilize Tech Transfer shorten their design time, save thousands of dollars and get their products into the marketplace quicker. By counting the number of requests for each vehicle, we get a kind of poll about the way members plan to spend their R&D dollars. Oscar Muñoz, who administers the program, said that the association received 522 requests from 164 members during the final quarter of 2010.

“Without doubt, data for the Camaro, the Corvette and the Mustang were the most requested,” Muñoz said. “New engines are very popular, and the data being requested included cylinder blocks, the intake tract from the air intake to the cylinder heads, internal parts and engine accessory drives. We’ve seen requests from all of the supercharger companies for the engines and surrounding body panels in those three cars. At the moment, I would gauge musclecars and trucks—both light-duty and heavy-duty—among the vehicles of greatest interest to SEMA members.”

Muñoz said that there have also been a number of truly unique requests that may be indicative of vehicle trends. For instance, several producers of electric and hybrid vehicles have asked for files on complete frame and suspension assemblies as well as drivetrain parts for the ’10 Camaro, ’10 Corvette, ’10 Mustang, ’06 E-250, ’08 Focus and ’08 F-150.

		The winner and still champion, Ford’s F-Series pickups were the best-selling vehicles in America for 24 consecutive years and the best-selling trucks for more than three decades. The perennial all-star not only ranked high in downloads from the SEMA Tech Transfer program and was the subject of the best-attended SEMA Measuring Session last year, but it also won the 2010 SEMA Award in the truck division. With so many units out there and so many variations on how a pickup can be customized, it’s a good bet that the F-Series will stay hot among manufacturers in 2WD, 4x4 and heavy-duty work-truck categories.
		The Jeep Wrangler is another perpetual favorite among enthusiasts as well as the general public, and it took the 2010 SEMA Award for being the most ubiquitous 4x4-SUV at the SEMA Show. The Wrangler can be ordered with either of two 4WD systems and heavy-duty axles. The 3.8L V6 may be mated to a six-speed manual or a four-speed automatic transmission. The Wrangler caters to enthusiasts who require off-road equipment, not to mention drivetrain upgrades, so it has been a strong source of parts sales in spite of dips in the economy.
		The Chevrolet Corvette—America’s Sports Car—has been an enthusiast favorite since the first one rolled off the assembly line in 1953. The latest version has been the subject of numerous inquiries to SEMA’s Technology Transfer program. This factory hot rod has turned 190 mph on the track. It’s fitted standard with a 6.2L LS3 aluminum-block V8 and is a slick beast, with a drag coefficient of only .286. Corvette owners, while smaller in number than some cars, are typically enthusiastic about performance upgrades.

Another SEMA Indicator comes from a program that is a companion piece to Tech Transfer. SEMA Measuring Sessions allow member companies to gain hands-on access to near-production prototype vehicles directly from participating automakers in order to collect surface data. These sessions are generally held at the automaker’s facilities and provide attendees with the opportunity to talk directly with original-equipment manufacturer (OEM) engineers.

SEMA holds about 20 Measuring Sessions each year. By looking at how many manufacturers send measuring teams, we get a sense of where industry interest is focused. According to Bill Wolf, SEMA’s senior director of OEM relations, the companies that attend Measuring Sessions tend to be manufacturers of wheels, suspensions, interior and body accessories, mobile electronics and performance powertrain parts.

“These companies are interested in time savings and engineering and design cost savings,” Wolf said. “They can spend more time with a vehicle at a Measuring Session than if they were to borrow it from a dealer. The sessions that were the most well attended were those for vehicles such as the Camaro, Mustang, Scion tC and Mazda2, along with Ford, Ram, Chevy/GMC trucks.”

The best attended of the most recent sessions were those for the ’10 Camaro in the musclecar category, ’11 Ford F-Series in the truck field, ’12 Ford Explorer in the SUV group, Honda CR-Z in the sporty-car class, and Chevrolet Cruze compact sedan. The best-attended gathering of all is no surprise—it was a two-day session in Dearborn, Michigan, that featured the new Ford F-Series.

The New Product Launch Data and Buyer Interest

Another relevant statistic comes from the SEMA Show New Products Showcase, where manufacturers highlight their newest products. By counting the relative frequency of brand-specific product launches, and looking at which categories were most clicked on, we can get a picture of R&D investments made in 2010, and what retailers will be selling in 2011 and beyond. It’s an inexact measurement because so many products are offered without mentioning any specific application, and it ignores entire categories such as street rods and restoration parts. Still, the results confirm the other indicators.

For example, there were at least 83 Ford Mustang-specific product offerings, and 76 product descriptions that mentioned the word “Camaro.” Jeep Wrangler was third with 31 applications. The fullsize pickups were all about the same in terms of new applications: the F-Series had 15 new products; Ram had 14; and a search for Chevy Silverado turned up 14 new products. The somewhat lower numbers for the pickups suggests there are many products that are generic, such as bed boxes, lights or winches. Other models that turned up frequently in product descriptions were Toyota FJ Cruiser, Nissan 370Z, BMW, Range Rover, Corvette, Subaru WRX and Honda Civic.

Another more exact insight comes from buyer card-swipe data, indicating which categories were of greatest interest to buyers at the Show. Among registered buyers at the 2010 Show, the top 10 hot categories were, in order: wheels; exterior accessories; suspension and steering; waxes and polish; engines and engine parts; brake systems; tires and tire accessories; exhaust systems; interior accessories; and lubricants. This represents a bit of a shift from 2009, when engines and engine parts were the number one category among buyers.

By combining the two observations, it seems clear that wheels, suspension components and engine parts for musclecars, Jeeps and pickups will be fertile ground for manufacturers and retailers in 2011.

Spy Shot Clicks

New vehicles that are near release or are on the horizon also pique interest as SEMA Indicators. A feature called “Spy Photos” in the association’s SEMA eNews weekly electronic newsletter has developed a devoted following. Each week, Brenda Priddy and her band of surreptitious shooters capture a few unauthorized frames of test vehicles that the automakers have out on the roads but aren’t quick ready for the general public to see. Jason Catullo, the newsletter’s associate editor, said that five such shots created considerable spikes in viewership in the last year. Logically, these are the vehicles that specialty manufacturers find most interesting.

The Ford Taurus SHO tallied top interest, followed by the announcement that the Chevy Malibu would be receiving a turbocharger, an Australian version of the Ford Falcon, the Chevrolet Volt and the Acura TL.

“On a general note, our readers are most interested in domestic models,” Catullo said. “Ten domestic models that scored higher than average in the last year included the Chevrolet Camaro Z/28, an SRT8 development vehicle, the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the Cadillac CTS Wagon, the Ford F-150 Raptor, the Volt, the Australian Ford, the Malibu with Turbo and the Taurus SHO. Even though only four truck or SUV photos ran during the entire year, they all scored higher than average and were all domestic.”

		The Chevrolet Cruze led in Measuring Session attendance for its compact sedan class. The Cruze is touted by Chevrolet as having the “spaciousness and amenities of a midsize car with the fuel economy of a compact.” It’s powered by either a 1.4L Ecotec turbocharged engine or the standard 1.8L Ecotec and includes electronic stability control with rollover sensing and traction control.
		Tech Transfer data on the Mustang was also among the most requested, and the GT500 version ranked very high in auction searches on eBay. The Mustang GT is equipped with a 412hp 5.0L V8 engine and a six-speed manual transmission, while the base V6 delivers 305 hp and 31 mpg. There was a large number of customized Mustangs at the SEMA Show in 2010, and a significant factor in parts launches as seen in the New Products Showcase.

Our final specific-vehicle indicator comes from eBay. We asked the highly trafficked auction site to let us in on the top makes and models viewed in the past six months, and this time, the results were surprising. The top search topic was the high-zoot Maybach, with replicas and kits based on Porsches and Corvettes in second place. When we asked about views for domestic vehicles, eBay’s experts told us that the top five most-viewed vehicles were the Tesla Roadster, Shelby GT 500, Galatea kit car, Hummer line and various Cadillac models.

In a more general sense on the international front, Reuters reported in February that the global auto market was on an upswing. Of course, that was prior to the latest unrest in the Middle East and the resulting uncertainty in fuel prices, but it’s worth noting that the emerging markets were looking more positive and U.S. sales were stronger, both of which affect total global sales. Toyota, the world’s number-one auto manufacturer, raised its expectations based on stronger projections and cost-cutting measures, and Reuters said that Toyota was forecasting better-than-expected sales in Asia, Japan and Russia.

Reuters also reported that BMW unit sales rose 28% in January and expected to reach its target of selling more than 1.5 million units in 2011. Daimler, meanwhile, was aiming to sell the highest number of cars in the company’s history, with Mercedes-Benz sales rising 23.1% in January. And Audi posted a global sales increase of 22.6%, continuing to grow in both China and the United States. That tells us that the luxury side of the market is coming back, after a long dormant period.

Fuel Prices: The Wild Card

Another indicator that may trump the rest is the price of fuel. We’ve been seeing a steady climb over the past few months, and there is nothing in the near future that portends a shift back southward. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA; U.S. Department of Energy) said in February—even before the revolutionary goings-on in the Middle East—that the average price of a barrel of crude oil would rise from about $93 in 2011 ($14 higher than the average in 2010) to $99 in the fourth quarter of 2012. That translates to $3.17 per gallon for regular-grade gas this year ($.39 higher than last year) and $3.29 per gallon in 2011 but about $.05 higher in the peak driving season of April through September. Things are so uncertain, however, that the EIA is hedging its bets with a further 25% probability prediction that prices could exceed $3.50 per gallon in the 2011 peak period and an 8%–10% probability that they could exceed $4 per gallon during the peak, with diesel prices rising even higher in each forecast.

If you believe fuel prices are going up, you might expect the sales of fullsize SUVs and pickups to go down. According to a National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) used-car guide industry update in January, if fuel prices continue to increase, consumer demand may again shift toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, which could lead to a softening of prices for larger, more fuel-inefficient ones. “While it doesn’t appear that we’ll experience significant fuel-related shocks over the course of the next 12 months,” the NADA guide said, “the anticipated increases in the cost of fuel will most likely be enough to stifle the two-year explosion in prices enjoyed by certain truck segments.”

The best-attended SEMA Measuring Session for an SUV in 2010 was the one held for the Ford Explorer. The Explorer comes with the very popular MyFord Touch driver-connect technology and SYNC integrated communications and entertainment system as well as stability and curve control technology, and it lays claim to best-in-class fuel economy, which could be an increasingly bigger deal as oil prices continue to escalate. The Explorer is likely to become a high-volume SUV, which could lead to significant demand for upgrades in 2012 and beyond.		The Honda CR-Z made our list of hottest vehicles for 2011 by virtue of leading the Measuring Session attendance in the sporty-car class. The CR-Z two-passenger coupe is a gasoline-electric hybrid that pairs a 1.5L i-VTEC four-cylinder engine and a compact and lightweight Integrated Motor Assist system. It’s available with a six-speed manual transmission or an automatic continuously variable automatic.		The Ford Taurus SHO tallied the greatest number of clicks in the popular “Spy Photos” SEMA eNews feature. The weekly electronic newsletter’s subscribers were obviously interested in the renewal of the Super High Output (SHO) vehicle, which is powered by an EcoBoost twin-turbocharged engine that generates an estimated 365 hp at 5,500 rpm and 350 lb.-ft. of torque at 3,500 rpm. Though it’s early in the year, the Taurus SHO has already won several awards, and as a high-performance car, it’s logical to predict popularity among enthusiasts who will customize.
The Tesla Roadster electric supercar was the most-viewed domestically produced vehicle on the eBay online auction site over a six-month period from September 2010 to February 2011. The Roadster is hand built and skinned in carbon fiber. Its electric powertrain, which produces zero emissions, propels the car to a top speed of 125 mph and accelerates to 60 mph from a standing start in 3.7 seconds. Its onboard charger can be plugged in to any 110- or 220-volt electrical outlet. Given time, it could be a player in the “driving green” segment of the aftermarket.		Sheer popularity: The Toyota Corolla/Matrix was the top-selling car in the United States during January 2011, according to Automotive News. All models are equipped with the 1.8L DOHC four-cylinder engine, which can be ordered with a five-speed manual transmission or a four-speed automatic. Corollas are also equipped with an electronic stability control system and traction control. The Corolla shares platform components with the more enthusiast-oriented Matrix; between the two, specialty parts manufacturers can expect a high-volume market.		Pickups, perhaps the ultimate generic automotive commodity, will continue to be ripe for lowering, lifting and outfitting for towing. Although the ’10 F-Series pickups seemed to generate the most interest, Chevy Silverado/GMC Sierra and Ram pickups are high-volume opportunities with higher-than-average rates of adaptation using specialty equipment. Approximately equal numbers of new products were launched in 2010 for each of the three models.

Gazing Into the Crystal Ball (With Some Educated Guesses)

By Steve Campbell

Foremost among our fortune-telling tools is the SEMA Show itself. Those who attended last November may be aware that SEMA bestowed a series of awards on select vehicles at the 2010 event. The awards for Hottest Car, Hottest Truck and Hottest 4x4-SUV of the Show were actually selected by the exhibitors based on the number of each model displayed in the exhibit spaces. As SEMA President and CEO Chris Kersting put it: “A booth space is a ballot, and the models these exhibitors selected represent their votes.”

The 2010 SEMA Show featured more than 1,900 exhibiting companies, and the three awards were bestowed upon the Chevrolet Camaro, Ford F-Series and Jeep Wrangler. Those are three perennial all-stars for the specialty-equipment industry, and they have been at or near the top of their categories in sales for decades, in some cases. But, we also wanted to dig further into the list of SEMA Indicators to see if there might be other candidates that automotive retailers ought to be conscious of as the year progresses.

Technology Downloads

The SEMA Technology Transfer program is one of the most popular tools available to manufacturing companies. It allows members to request data, such as CAD files, from the SEMA website. The files can be processed directly into the manufacturers’ computers and production machinery, allowing them to eliminate reverse engineering and proceed directly to prototyping components and assemblies. Companies that utilize Tech Transfer shorten their design time, save thousands of dollars and get their products into the marketplace quicker. By counting the number of requests for each vehicle, we get a kind of poll about the way members plan to spend their R&D dollars. Oscar Muñoz, who administers the program, said that the association received 522 requests from 164 members during the final quarter of 2010.

“Without doubt, data for the Camaro, the Corvette and the Mustang were the most requested,” Muñoz said. “New engines are very popular, and the data being requested included cylinder blocks, the intake tract from the air intake to the cylinder heads, internal parts and engine accessory drives. We’ve seen requests from all of the supercharger companies for the engines and surrounding body panels in those three cars. At the moment, I would gauge musclecars and trucks—both light-duty and heavy-duty—among the vehicles of greatest interest to SEMA members.”

Muñoz said that there have also been a number of truly unique requests that may be indicative of vehicle trends. For instance, several producers of electric and hybrid vehicles have asked for files on complete frame and suspension assemblies as well as drivetrain parts for the ’10 Camaro, ’10 Corvette, ’10 Mustang, ’06 E-250, ’08 Focus and ’08 F-150.

		The winner and still champion, Ford’s F-Series pickups were the best-selling vehicles in America for 24 consecutive years and the best-selling trucks for more than three decades. The perennial all-star not only ranked high in downloads from the SEMA Tech Transfer program and was the subject of the best-attended SEMA Measuring Session last year, but it also won the 2010 SEMA Award in the truck division. With so many units out there and so many variations on how a pickup can be customized, it’s a good bet that the F-Series will stay hot among manufacturers in 2WD, 4x4 and heavy-duty work-truck categories.
		The Jeep Wrangler is another perpetual favorite among enthusiasts as well as the general public, and it took the 2010 SEMA Award for being the most ubiquitous 4x4-SUV at the SEMA Show. The Wrangler can be ordered with either of two 4WD systems and heavy-duty axles. The 3.8L V6 may be mated to a six-speed manual or a four-speed automatic transmission. The Wrangler caters to enthusiasts who require off-road equipment, not to mention drivetrain upgrades, so it has been a strong source of parts sales in spite of dips in the economy.
		The Chevrolet Corvette—America’s Sports Car—has been an enthusiast favorite since the first one rolled off the assembly line in 1953. The latest version has been the subject of numerous inquiries to SEMA’s Technology Transfer program. This factory hot rod has turned 190 mph on the track. It’s fitted standard with a 6.2L LS3 aluminum-block V8 and is a slick beast, with a drag coefficient of only .286. Corvette owners, while smaller in number than some cars, are typically enthusiastic about performance upgrades.

Another SEMA Indicator comes from a program that is a companion piece to Tech Transfer. SEMA Measuring Sessions allow member companies to gain hands-on access to near-production prototype vehicles directly from participating automakers in order to collect surface data. These sessions are generally held at the automaker’s facilities and provide attendees with the opportunity to talk directly with original-equipment manufacturer (OEM) engineers.

SEMA holds about 20 Measuring Sessions each year. By looking at how many manufacturers send measuring teams, we get a sense of where industry interest is focused. According to Bill Wolf, SEMA’s senior director of OEM relations, the companies that attend Measuring Sessions tend to be manufacturers of wheels, suspensions, interior and body accessories, mobile electronics and performance powertrain parts.

“These companies are interested in time savings and engineering and design cost savings,” Wolf said. “They can spend more time with a vehicle at a Measuring Session than if they were to borrow it from a dealer. The sessions that were the most well attended were those for vehicles such as the Camaro, Mustang, Scion tC and Mazda2, along with Ford, Ram, Chevy/GMC trucks.”

The best attended of the most recent sessions were those for the ’10 Camaro in the musclecar category, ’11 Ford F-Series in the truck field, ’12 Ford Explorer in the SUV group, Honda CR-Z in the sporty-car class, and Chevrolet Cruze compact sedan. The best-attended gathering of all is no surprise—it was a two-day session in Dearborn, Michigan, that featured the new Ford F-Series.

The New Product Launch Data and Buyer Interest

Another relevant statistic comes from the SEMA Show New Products Showcase, where manufacturers highlight their newest products. By counting the relative frequency of brand-specific product launches, and looking at which categories were most clicked on, we can get a picture of R&D investments made in 2010, and what retailers will be selling in 2011 and beyond. It’s an inexact measurement because so many products are offered without mentioning any specific application, and it ignores entire categories such as street rods and restoration parts. Still, the results confirm the other indicators.

For example, there were at least 83 Ford Mustang-specific product offerings, and 76 product descriptions that mentioned the word “Camaro.” Jeep Wrangler was third with 31 applications. The fullsize pickups were all about the same in terms of new applications: the F-Series had 15 new products; Ram had 14; and a search for Chevy Silverado turned up 14 new products. The somewhat lower numbers for the pickups suggests there are many products that are generic, such as bed boxes, lights or winches. Other models that turned up frequently in product descriptions were Toyota FJ Cruiser, Nissan 370Z, BMW, Range Rover, Corvette, Subaru WRX and Honda Civic.

Another more exact insight comes from buyer card-swipe data, indicating which categories were of greatest interest to buyers at the Show. Among registered buyers at the 2010 Show, the top 10 hot categories were, in order: wheels; exterior accessories; suspension and steering; waxes and polish; engines and engine parts; brake systems; tires and tire accessories; exhaust systems; interior accessories; and lubricants. This represents a bit of a shift from 2009, when engines and engine parts were the number one category among buyers.

By combining the two observations, it seems clear that wheels, suspension components and engine parts for musclecars, Jeeps and pickups will be fertile ground for manufacturers and retailers in 2011.

Spy Shot Clicks

New vehicles that are near release or are on the horizon also pique interest as SEMA Indicators. A feature called “Spy Photos” in the association’s SEMA eNews weekly electronic newsletter has developed a devoted following. Each week, Brenda Priddy and her band of surreptitious shooters capture a few unauthorized frames of test vehicles that the automakers have out on the roads but aren’t quick ready for the general public to see. Jason Catullo, the newsletter’s associate editor, said that five such shots created considerable spikes in viewership in the last year. Logically, these are the vehicles that specialty manufacturers find most interesting.

The Ford Taurus SHO tallied top interest, followed by the announcement that the Chevy Malibu would be receiving a turbocharger, an Australian version of the Ford Falcon, the Chevrolet Volt and the Acura TL.

“On a general note, our readers are most interested in domestic models,” Catullo said. “Ten domestic models that scored higher than average in the last year included the Chevrolet Camaro Z/28, an SRT8 development vehicle, the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the Cadillac CTS Wagon, the Ford F-150 Raptor, the Volt, the Australian Ford, the Malibu with Turbo and the Taurus SHO. Even though only four truck or SUV photos ran during the entire year, they all scored higher than average and were all domestic.”

		The Chevrolet Cruze led in Measuring Session attendance for its compact sedan class. The Cruze is touted by Chevrolet as having the “spaciousness and amenities of a midsize car with the fuel economy of a compact.” It’s powered by either a 1.4L Ecotec turbocharged engine or the standard 1.8L Ecotec and includes electronic stability control with rollover sensing and traction control.
		Tech Transfer data on the Mustang was also among the most requested, and the GT500 version ranked very high in auction searches on eBay. The Mustang GT is equipped with a 412hp 5.0L V8 engine and a six-speed manual transmission, while the base V6 delivers 305 hp and 31 mpg. There was a large number of customized Mustangs at the SEMA Show in 2010, and a significant factor in parts launches as seen in the New Products Showcase.

Our final specific-vehicle indicator comes from eBay. We asked the highly trafficked auction site to let us in on the top makes and models viewed in the past six months, and this time, the results were surprising. The top search topic was the high-zoot Maybach, with replicas and kits based on Porsches and Corvettes in second place. When we asked about views for domestic vehicles, eBay’s experts told us that the top five most-viewed vehicles were the Tesla Roadster, Shelby GT 500, Galatea kit car, Hummer line and various Cadillac models.

In a more general sense on the international front, Reuters reported in February that the global auto market was on an upswing. Of course, that was prior to the latest unrest in the Middle East and the resulting uncertainty in fuel prices, but it’s worth noting that the emerging markets were looking more positive and U.S. sales were stronger, both of which affect total global sales. Toyota, the world’s number-one auto manufacturer, raised its expectations based on stronger projections and cost-cutting measures, and Reuters said that Toyota was forecasting better-than-expected sales in Asia, Japan and Russia.

Reuters also reported that BMW unit sales rose 28% in January and expected to reach its target of selling more than 1.5 million units in 2011. Daimler, meanwhile, was aiming to sell the highest number of cars in the company’s history, with Mercedes-Benz sales rising 23.1% in January. And Audi posted a global sales increase of 22.6%, continuing to grow in both China and the United States. That tells us that the luxury side of the market is coming back, after a long dormant period.

Fuel Prices: The Wild Card

Another indicator that may trump the rest is the price of fuel. We’ve been seeing a steady climb over the past few months, and there is nothing in the near future that portends a shift back southward. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA; U.S. Department of Energy) said in February—even before the revolutionary goings-on in the Middle East—that the average price of a barrel of crude oil would rise from about $93 in 2011 ($14 higher than the average in 2010) to $99 in the fourth quarter of 2012. That translates to $3.17 per gallon for regular-grade gas this year ($.39 higher than last year) and $3.29 per gallon in 2011 but about $.05 higher in the peak driving season of April through September. Things are so uncertain, however, that the EIA is hedging its bets with a further 25% probability prediction that prices could exceed $3.50 per gallon in the 2011 peak period and an 8%–10% probability that they could exceed $4 per gallon during the peak, with diesel prices rising even higher in each forecast.

If you believe fuel prices are going up, you might expect the sales of fullsize SUVs and pickups to go down. According to a National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) used-car guide industry update in January, if fuel prices continue to increase, consumer demand may again shift toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, which could lead to a softening of prices for larger, more fuel-inefficient ones. “While it doesn’t appear that we’ll experience significant fuel-related shocks over the course of the next 12 months,” the NADA guide said, “the anticipated increases in the cost of fuel will most likely be enough to stifle the two-year explosion in prices enjoyed by certain truck segments.”

The best-attended SEMA Measuring Session for an SUV in 2010 was the one held for the Ford Explorer. The Explorer comes with the very popular MyFord Touch driver-connect technology and SYNC integrated communications and entertainment system as well as stability and curve control technology, and it lays claim to best-in-class fuel economy, which could be an increasingly bigger deal as oil prices continue to escalate. The Explorer is likely to become a high-volume SUV, which could lead to significant demand for upgrades in 2012 and beyond.		The Honda CR-Z made our list of hottest vehicles for 2011 by virtue of leading the Measuring Session attendance in the sporty-car class. The CR-Z two-passenger coupe is a gasoline-electric hybrid that pairs a 1.5L i-VTEC four-cylinder engine and a compact and lightweight Integrated Motor Assist system. It’s available with a six-speed manual transmission or an automatic continuously variable automatic.		The Ford Taurus SHO tallied the greatest number of clicks in the popular “Spy Photos” SEMA eNews feature. The weekly electronic newsletter’s subscribers were obviously interested in the renewal of the Super High Output (SHO) vehicle, which is powered by an EcoBoost twin-turbocharged engine that generates an estimated 365 hp at 5,500 rpm and 350 lb.-ft. of torque at 3,500 rpm. Though it’s early in the year, the Taurus SHO has already won several awards, and as a high-performance car, it’s logical to predict popularity among enthusiasts who will customize.
The Tesla Roadster electric supercar was the most-viewed domestically produced vehicle on the eBay online auction site over a six-month period from September 2010 to February 2011. The Roadster is hand built and skinned in carbon fiber. Its electric powertrain, which produces zero emissions, propels the car to a top speed of 125 mph and accelerates to 60 mph from a standing start in 3.7 seconds. Its onboard charger can be plugged in to any 110- or 220-volt electrical outlet. Given time, it could be a player in the “driving green” segment of the aftermarket.		Sheer popularity: The Toyota Corolla/Matrix was the top-selling car in the United States during January 2011, according to Automotive News. All models are equipped with the 1.8L DOHC four-cylinder engine, which can be ordered with a five-speed manual transmission or a four-speed automatic. Corollas are also equipped with an electronic stability control system and traction control. The Corolla shares platform components with the more enthusiast-oriented Matrix; between the two, specialty parts manufacturers can expect a high-volume market.		Pickups, perhaps the ultimate generic automotive commodity, will continue to be ripe for lowering, lifting and outfitting for towing. Although the ’10 F-Series pickups seemed to generate the most interest, Chevy Silverado/GMC Sierra and Ram pickups are high-volume opportunities with higher-than-average rates of adaptation using specialty equipment. Approximately equal numbers of new products were launched in 2010 for each of the three models.

Gazing Into the Crystal Ball (With Some Educated Guesses)

By Steve Campbell

Foremost among our fortune-telling tools is the SEMA Show itself. Those who attended last November may be aware that SEMA bestowed a series of awards on select vehicles at the 2010 event. The awards for Hottest Car, Hottest Truck and Hottest 4x4-SUV of the Show were actually selected by the exhibitors based on the number of each model displayed in the exhibit spaces. As SEMA President and CEO Chris Kersting put it: “A booth space is a ballot, and the models these exhibitors selected represent their votes.”

The 2010 SEMA Show featured more than 1,900 exhibiting companies, and the three awards were bestowed upon the Chevrolet Camaro, Ford F-Series and Jeep Wrangler. Those are three perennial all-stars for the specialty-equipment industry, and they have been at or near the top of their categories in sales for decades, in some cases. But, we also wanted to dig further into the list of SEMA Indicators to see if there might be other candidates that automotive retailers ought to be conscious of as the year progresses.

Technology Downloads

The SEMA Technology Transfer program is one of the most popular tools available to manufacturing companies. It allows members to request data, such as CAD files, from the SEMA website. The files can be processed directly into the manufacturers’ computers and production machinery, allowing them to eliminate reverse engineering and proceed directly to prototyping components and assemblies. Companies that utilize Tech Transfer shorten their design time, save thousands of dollars and get their products into the marketplace quicker. By counting the number of requests for each vehicle, we get a kind of poll about the way members plan to spend their R&D dollars. Oscar Muñoz, who administers the program, said that the association received 522 requests from 164 members during the final quarter of 2010.

“Without doubt, data for the Camaro, the Corvette and the Mustang were the most requested,” Muñoz said. “New engines are very popular, and the data being requested included cylinder blocks, the intake tract from the air intake to the cylinder heads, internal parts and engine accessory drives. We’ve seen requests from all of the supercharger companies for the engines and surrounding body panels in those three cars. At the moment, I would gauge musclecars and trucks—both light-duty and heavy-duty—among the vehicles of greatest interest to SEMA members.”

Muñoz said that there have also been a number of truly unique requests that may be indicative of vehicle trends. For instance, several producers of electric and hybrid vehicles have asked for files on complete frame and suspension assemblies as well as drivetrain parts for the ’10 Camaro, ’10 Corvette, ’10 Mustang, ’06 E-250, ’08 Focus and ’08 F-150.

		The winner and still champion, Ford’s F-Series pickups were the best-selling vehicles in America for 24 consecutive years and the best-selling trucks for more than three decades. The perennial all-star not only ranked high in downloads from the SEMA Tech Transfer program and was the subject of the best-attended SEMA Measuring Session last year, but it also won the 2010 SEMA Award in the truck division. With so many units out there and so many variations on how a pickup can be customized, it’s a good bet that the F-Series will stay hot among manufacturers in 2WD, 4x4 and heavy-duty work-truck categories.
		The Jeep Wrangler is another perpetual favorite among enthusiasts as well as the general public, and it took the 2010 SEMA Award for being the most ubiquitous 4x4-SUV at the SEMA Show. The Wrangler can be ordered with either of two 4WD systems and heavy-duty axles. The 3.8L V6 may be mated to a six-speed manual or a four-speed automatic transmission. The Wrangler caters to enthusiasts who require off-road equipment, not to mention drivetrain upgrades, so it has been a strong source of parts sales in spite of dips in the economy.
		The Chevrolet Corvette—America’s Sports Car—has been an enthusiast favorite since the first one rolled off the assembly line in 1953. The latest version has been the subject of numerous inquiries to SEMA’s Technology Transfer program. This factory hot rod has turned 190 mph on the track. It’s fitted standard with a 6.2L LS3 aluminum-block V8 and is a slick beast, with a drag coefficient of only .286. Corvette owners, while smaller in number than some cars, are typically enthusiastic about performance upgrades.

Another SEMA Indicator comes from a program that is a companion piece to Tech Transfer. SEMA Measuring Sessions allow member companies to gain hands-on access to near-production prototype vehicles directly from participating automakers in order to collect surface data. These sessions are generally held at the automaker’s facilities and provide attendees with the opportunity to talk directly with original-equipment manufacturer (OEM) engineers.

SEMA holds about 20 Measuring Sessions each year. By looking at how many manufacturers send measuring teams, we get a sense of where industry interest is focused. According to Bill Wolf, SEMA’s senior director of OEM relations, the companies that attend Measuring Sessions tend to be manufacturers of wheels, suspensions, interior and body accessories, mobile electronics and performance powertrain parts.

“These companies are interested in time savings and engineering and design cost savings,” Wolf said. “They can spend more time with a vehicle at a Measuring Session than if they were to borrow it from a dealer. The sessions that were the most well attended were those for vehicles such as the Camaro, Mustang, Scion tC and Mazda2, along with Ford, Ram, Chevy/GMC trucks.”

The best attended of the most recent sessions were those for the ’10 Camaro in the musclecar category, ’11 Ford F-Series in the truck field, ’12 Ford Explorer in the SUV group, Honda CR-Z in the sporty-car class, and Chevrolet Cruze compact sedan. The best-attended gathering of all is no surprise—it was a two-day session in Dearborn, Michigan, that featured the new Ford F-Series.

The New Product Launch Data and Buyer Interest

Another relevant statistic comes from the SEMA Show New Products Showcase, where manufacturers highlight their newest products. By counting the relative frequency of brand-specific product launches, and looking at which categories were most clicked on, we can get a picture of R&D investments made in 2010, and what retailers will be selling in 2011 and beyond. It’s an inexact measurement because so many products are offered without mentioning any specific application, and it ignores entire categories such as street rods and restoration parts. Still, the results confirm the other indicators.

For example, there were at least 83 Ford Mustang-specific product offerings, and 76 product descriptions that mentioned the word “Camaro.” Jeep Wrangler was third with 31 applications. The fullsize pickups were all about the same in terms of new applications: the F-Series had 15 new products; Ram had 14; and a search for Chevy Silverado turned up 14 new products. The somewhat lower numbers for the pickups suggests there are many products that are generic, such as bed boxes, lights or winches. Other models that turned up frequently in product descriptions were Toyota FJ Cruiser, Nissan 370Z, BMW, Range Rover, Corvette, Subaru WRX and Honda Civic.

Another more exact insight comes from buyer card-swipe data, indicating which categories were of greatest interest to buyers at the Show. Among registered buyers at the 2010 Show, the top 10 hot categories were, in order: wheels; exterior accessories; suspension and steering; waxes and polish; engines and engine parts; brake systems; tires and tire accessories; exhaust systems; interior accessories; and lubricants. This represents a bit of a shift from 2009, when engines and engine parts were the number one category among buyers.

By combining the two observations, it seems clear that wheels, suspension components and engine parts for musclecars, Jeeps and pickups will be fertile ground for manufacturers and retailers in 2011.

Spy Shot Clicks

New vehicles that are near release or are on the horizon also pique interest as SEMA Indicators. A feature called “Spy Photos” in the association’s SEMA eNews weekly electronic newsletter has developed a devoted following. Each week, Brenda Priddy and her band of surreptitious shooters capture a few unauthorized frames of test vehicles that the automakers have out on the roads but aren’t quick ready for the general public to see. Jason Catullo, the newsletter’s associate editor, said that five such shots created considerable spikes in viewership in the last year. Logically, these are the vehicles that specialty manufacturers find most interesting.

The Ford Taurus SHO tallied top interest, followed by the announcement that the Chevy Malibu would be receiving a turbocharger, an Australian version of the Ford Falcon, the Chevrolet Volt and the Acura TL.

“On a general note, our readers are most interested in domestic models,” Catullo said. “Ten domestic models that scored higher than average in the last year included the Chevrolet Camaro Z/28, an SRT8 development vehicle, the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the Cadillac CTS Wagon, the Ford F-150 Raptor, the Volt, the Australian Ford, the Malibu with Turbo and the Taurus SHO. Even though only four truck or SUV photos ran during the entire year, they all scored higher than average and were all domestic.”

		The Chevrolet Cruze led in Measuring Session attendance for its compact sedan class. The Cruze is touted by Chevrolet as having the “spaciousness and amenities of a midsize car with the fuel economy of a compact.” It’s powered by either a 1.4L Ecotec turbocharged engine or the standard 1.8L Ecotec and includes electronic stability control with rollover sensing and traction control.
		Tech Transfer data on the Mustang was also among the most requested, and the GT500 version ranked very high in auction searches on eBay. The Mustang GT is equipped with a 412hp 5.0L V8 engine and a six-speed manual transmission, while the base V6 delivers 305 hp and 31 mpg. There was a large number of customized Mustangs at the SEMA Show in 2010, and a significant factor in parts launches as seen in the New Products Showcase.

Our final specific-vehicle indicator comes from eBay. We asked the highly trafficked auction site to let us in on the top makes and models viewed in the past six months, and this time, the results were surprising. The top search topic was the high-zoot Maybach, with replicas and kits based on Porsches and Corvettes in second place. When we asked about views for domestic vehicles, eBay’s experts told us that the top five most-viewed vehicles were the Tesla Roadster, Shelby GT 500, Galatea kit car, Hummer line and various Cadillac models.

In a more general sense on the international front, Reuters reported in February that the global auto market was on an upswing. Of course, that was prior to the latest unrest in the Middle East and the resulting uncertainty in fuel prices, but it’s worth noting that the emerging markets were looking more positive and U.S. sales were stronger, both of which affect total global sales. Toyota, the world’s number-one auto manufacturer, raised its expectations based on stronger projections and cost-cutting measures, and Reuters said that Toyota was forecasting better-than-expected sales in Asia, Japan and Russia.

Reuters also reported that BMW unit sales rose 28% in January and expected to reach its target of selling more than 1.5 million units in 2011. Daimler, meanwhile, was aiming to sell the highest number of cars in the company’s history, with Mercedes-Benz sales rising 23.1% in January. And Audi posted a global sales increase of 22.6%, continuing to grow in both China and the United States. That tells us that the luxury side of the market is coming back, after a long dormant period.

Fuel Prices: The Wild Card

Another indicator that may trump the rest is the price of fuel. We’ve been seeing a steady climb over the past few months, and there is nothing in the near future that portends a shift back southward. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA; U.S. Department of Energy) said in February—even before the revolutionary goings-on in the Middle East—that the average price of a barrel of crude oil would rise from about $93 in 2011 ($14 higher than the average in 2010) to $99 in the fourth quarter of 2012. That translates to $3.17 per gallon for regular-grade gas this year ($.39 higher than last year) and $3.29 per gallon in 2011 but about $.05 higher in the peak driving season of April through September. Things are so uncertain, however, that the EIA is hedging its bets with a further 25% probability prediction that prices could exceed $3.50 per gallon in the 2011 peak period and an 8%–10% probability that they could exceed $4 per gallon during the peak, with diesel prices rising even higher in each forecast.

If you believe fuel prices are going up, you might expect the sales of fullsize SUVs and pickups to go down. According to a National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) used-car guide industry update in January, if fuel prices continue to increase, consumer demand may again shift toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, which could lead to a softening of prices for larger, more fuel-inefficient ones. “While it doesn’t appear that we’ll experience significant fuel-related shocks over the course of the next 12 months,” the NADA guide said, “the anticipated increases in the cost of fuel will most likely be enough to stifle the two-year explosion in prices enjoyed by certain truck segments.”

The best-attended SEMA Measuring Session for an SUV in 2010 was the one held for the Ford Explorer. The Explorer comes with the very popular MyFord Touch driver-connect technology and SYNC integrated communications and entertainment system as well as stability and curve control technology, and it lays claim to best-in-class fuel economy, which could be an increasingly bigger deal as oil prices continue to escalate. The Explorer is likely to become a high-volume SUV, which could lead to significant demand for upgrades in 2012 and beyond.		The Honda CR-Z made our list of hottest vehicles for 2011 by virtue of leading the Measuring Session attendance in the sporty-car class. The CR-Z two-passenger coupe is a gasoline-electric hybrid that pairs a 1.5L i-VTEC four-cylinder engine and a compact and lightweight Integrated Motor Assist system. It’s available with a six-speed manual transmission or an automatic continuously variable automatic.		The Ford Taurus SHO tallied the greatest number of clicks in the popular “Spy Photos” SEMA eNews feature. The weekly electronic newsletter’s subscribers were obviously interested in the renewal of the Super High Output (SHO) vehicle, which is powered by an EcoBoost twin-turbocharged engine that generates an estimated 365 hp at 5,500 rpm and 350 lb.-ft. of torque at 3,500 rpm. Though it’s early in the year, the Taurus SHO has already won several awards, and as a high-performance car, it’s logical to predict popularity among enthusiasts who will customize.
The Tesla Roadster electric supercar was the most-viewed domestically produced vehicle on the eBay online auction site over a six-month period from September 2010 to February 2011. The Roadster is hand built and skinned in carbon fiber. Its electric powertrain, which produces zero emissions, propels the car to a top speed of 125 mph and accelerates to 60 mph from a standing start in 3.7 seconds. Its onboard charger can be plugged in to any 110- or 220-volt electrical outlet. Given time, it could be a player in the “driving green” segment of the aftermarket.		Sheer popularity: The Toyota Corolla/Matrix was the top-selling car in the United States during January 2011, according to Automotive News. All models are equipped with the 1.8L DOHC four-cylinder engine, which can be ordered with a five-speed manual transmission or a four-speed automatic. Corollas are also equipped with an electronic stability control system and traction control. The Corolla shares platform components with the more enthusiast-oriented Matrix; between the two, specialty parts manufacturers can expect a high-volume market.		Pickups, perhaps the ultimate generic automotive commodity, will continue to be ripe for lowering, lifting and outfitting for towing. Although the ’10 F-Series pickups seemed to generate the most interest, Chevy Silverado/GMC Sierra and Ram pickups are high-volume opportunities with higher-than-average rates of adaptation using specialty equipment. Approximately equal numbers of new products were launched in 2010 for each of the three models.

Gazing Into the Crystal Ball (With Some Educated Guesses)

By Steve Campbell

Foremost among our fortune-telling tools is the SEMA Show itself. Those who attended last November may be aware that SEMA bestowed a series of awards on select vehicles at the 2010 event. The awards for Hottest Car, Hottest Truck and Hottest 4x4-SUV of the Show were actually selected by the exhibitors based on the number of each model displayed in the exhibit spaces. As SEMA President and CEO Chris Kersting put it: “A booth space is a ballot, and the models these exhibitors selected represent their votes.”

The 2010 SEMA Show featured more than 1,900 exhibiting companies, and the three awards were bestowed upon the Chevrolet Camaro, Ford F-Series and Jeep Wrangler. Those are three perennial all-stars for the specialty-equipment industry, and they have been at or near the top of their categories in sales for decades, in some cases. But, we also wanted to dig further into the list of SEMA Indicators to see if there might be other candidates that automotive retailers ought to be conscious of as the year progresses.

Technology Downloads

The SEMA Technology Transfer program is one of the most popular tools available to manufacturing companies. It allows members to request data, such as CAD files, from the SEMA website. The files can be processed directly into the manufacturers’ computers and production machinery, allowing them to eliminate reverse engineering and proceed directly to prototyping components and assemblies. Companies that utilize Tech Transfer shorten their design time, save thousands of dollars and get their products into the marketplace quicker. By counting the number of requests for each vehicle, we get a kind of poll about the way members plan to spend their R&D dollars. Oscar Muñoz, who administers the program, said that the association received 522 requests from 164 members during the final quarter of 2010.

“Without doubt, data for the Camaro, the Corvette and the Mustang were the most requested,” Muñoz said. “New engines are very popular, and the data being requested included cylinder blocks, the intake tract from the air intake to the cylinder heads, internal parts and engine accessory drives. We’ve seen requests from all of the supercharger companies for the engines and surrounding body panels in those three cars. At the moment, I would gauge musclecars and trucks—both light-duty and heavy-duty—among the vehicles of greatest interest to SEMA members.”

Muñoz said that there have also been a number of truly unique requests that may be indicative of vehicle trends. For instance, several producers of electric and hybrid vehicles have asked for files on complete frame and suspension assemblies as well as drivetrain parts for the ’10 Camaro, ’10 Corvette, ’10 Mustang, ’06 E-250, ’08 Focus and ’08 F-150.

		The winner and still champion, Ford’s F-Series pickups were the best-selling vehicles in America for 24 consecutive years and the best-selling trucks for more than three decades. The perennial all-star not only ranked high in downloads from the SEMA Tech Transfer program and was the subject of the best-attended SEMA Measuring Session last year, but it also won the 2010 SEMA Award in the truck division. With so many units out there and so many variations on how a pickup can be customized, it’s a good bet that the F-Series will stay hot among manufacturers in 2WD, 4x4 and heavy-duty work-truck categories.
		The Jeep Wrangler is another perpetual favorite among enthusiasts as well as the general public, and it took the 2010 SEMA Award for being the most ubiquitous 4x4-SUV at the SEMA Show. The Wrangler can be ordered with either of two 4WD systems and heavy-duty axles. The 3.8L V6 may be mated to a six-speed manual or a four-speed automatic transmission. The Wrangler caters to enthusiasts who require off-road equipment, not to mention drivetrain upgrades, so it has been a strong source of parts sales in spite of dips in the economy.
		The Chevrolet Corvette—America’s Sports Car—has been an enthusiast favorite since the first one rolled off the assembly line in 1953. The latest version has been the subject of numerous inquiries to SEMA’s Technology Transfer program. This factory hot rod has turned 190 mph on the track. It’s fitted standard with a 6.2L LS3 aluminum-block V8 and is a slick beast, with a drag coefficient of only .286. Corvette owners, while smaller in number than some cars, are typically enthusiastic about performance upgrades.

Another SEMA Indicator comes from a program that is a companion piece to Tech Transfer. SEMA Measuring Sessions allow member companies to gain hands-on access to near-production prototype vehicles directly from participating automakers in order to collect surface data. These sessions are generally held at the automaker’s facilities and provide attendees with the opportunity to talk directly with original-equipment manufacturer (OEM) engineers.

SEMA holds about 20 Measuring Sessions each year. By looking at how many manufacturers send measuring teams, we get a sense of where industry interest is focused. According to Bill Wolf, SEMA’s senior director of OEM relations, the companies that attend Measuring Sessions tend to be manufacturers of wheels, suspensions, interior and body accessories, mobile electronics and performance powertrain parts.

“These companies are interested in time savings and engineering and design cost savings,” Wolf said. “They can spend more time with a vehicle at a Measuring Session than if they were to borrow it from a dealer. The sessions that were the most well attended were those for vehicles such as the Camaro, Mustang, Scion tC and Mazda2, along with Ford, Ram, Chevy/GMC trucks.”

The best attended of the most recent sessions were those for the ’10 Camaro in the musclecar category, ’11 Ford F-Series in the truck field, ’12 Ford Explorer in the SUV group, Honda CR-Z in the sporty-car class, and Chevrolet Cruze compact sedan. The best-attended gathering of all is no surprise—it was a two-day session in Dearborn, Michigan, that featured the new Ford F-Series.

The New Product Launch Data and Buyer Interest

Another relevant statistic comes from the SEMA Show New Products Showcase, where manufacturers highlight their newest products. By counting the relative frequency of brand-specific product launches, and looking at which categories were most clicked on, we can get a picture of R&D investments made in 2010, and what retailers will be selling in 2011 and beyond. It’s an inexact measurement because so many products are offered without mentioning any specific application, and it ignores entire categories such as street rods and restoration parts. Still, the results confirm the other indicators.

For example, there were at least 83 Ford Mustang-specific product offerings, and 76 product descriptions that mentioned the word “Camaro.” Jeep Wrangler was third with 31 applications. The fullsize pickups were all about the same in terms of new applications: the F-Series had 15 new products; Ram had 14; and a search for Chevy Silverado turned up 14 new products. The somewhat lower numbers for the pickups suggests there are many products that are generic, such as bed boxes, lights or winches. Other models that turned up frequently in product descriptions were Toyota FJ Cruiser, Nissan 370Z, BMW, Range Rover, Corvette, Subaru WRX and Honda Civic.

Another more exact insight comes from buyer card-swipe data, indicating which categories were of greatest interest to buyers at the Show. Among registered buyers at the 2010 Show, the top 10 hot categories were, in order: wheels; exterior accessories; suspension and steering; waxes and polish; engines and engine parts; brake systems; tires and tire accessories; exhaust systems; interior accessories; and lubricants. This represents a bit of a shift from 2009, when engines and engine parts were the number one category among buyers.

By combining the two observations, it seems clear that wheels, suspension components and engine parts for musclecars, Jeeps and pickups will be fertile ground for manufacturers and retailers in 2011.

Spy Shot Clicks

New vehicles that are near release or are on the horizon also pique interest as SEMA Indicators. A feature called “Spy Photos” in the association’s SEMA eNews weekly electronic newsletter has developed a devoted following. Each week, Brenda Priddy and her band of surreptitious shooters capture a few unauthorized frames of test vehicles that the automakers have out on the roads but aren’t quick ready for the general public to see. Jason Catullo, the newsletter’s associate editor, said that five such shots created considerable spikes in viewership in the last year. Logically, these are the vehicles that specialty manufacturers find most interesting.

The Ford Taurus SHO tallied top interest, followed by the announcement that the Chevy Malibu would be receiving a turbocharger, an Australian version of the Ford Falcon, the Chevrolet Volt and the Acura TL.

“On a general note, our readers are most interested in domestic models,” Catullo said. “Ten domestic models that scored higher than average in the last year included the Chevrolet Camaro Z/28, an SRT8 development vehicle, the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the Cadillac CTS Wagon, the Ford F-150 Raptor, the Volt, the Australian Ford, the Malibu with Turbo and the Taurus SHO. Even though only four truck or SUV photos ran during the entire year, they all scored higher than average and were all domestic.”

		The Chevrolet Cruze led in Measuring Session attendance for its compact sedan class. The Cruze is touted by Chevrolet as having the “spaciousness and amenities of a midsize car with the fuel economy of a compact.” It’s powered by either a 1.4L Ecotec turbocharged engine or the standard 1.8L Ecotec and includes electronic stability control with rollover sensing and traction control.
		Tech Transfer data on the Mustang was also among the most requested, and the GT500 version ranked very high in auction searches on eBay. The Mustang GT is equipped with a 412hp 5.0L V8 engine and a six-speed manual transmission, while the base V6 delivers 305 hp and 31 mpg. There was a large number of customized Mustangs at the SEMA Show in 2010, and a significant factor in parts launches as seen in the New Products Showcase.

Our final specific-vehicle indicator comes from eBay. We asked the highly trafficked auction site to let us in on the top makes and models viewed in the past six months, and this time, the results were surprising. The top search topic was the high-zoot Maybach, with replicas and kits based on Porsches and Corvettes in second place. When we asked about views for domestic vehicles, eBay’s experts told us that the top five most-viewed vehicles were the Tesla Roadster, Shelby GT 500, Galatea kit car, Hummer line and various Cadillac models.

In a more general sense on the international front, Reuters reported in February that the global auto market was on an upswing. Of course, that was prior to the latest unrest in the Middle East and the resulting uncertainty in fuel prices, but it’s worth noting that the emerging markets were looking more positive and U.S. sales were stronger, both of which affect total global sales. Toyota, the world’s number-one auto manufacturer, raised its expectations based on stronger projections and cost-cutting measures, and Reuters said that Toyota was forecasting better-than-expected sales in Asia, Japan and Russia.

Reuters also reported that BMW unit sales rose 28% in January and expected to reach its target of selling more than 1.5 million units in 2011. Daimler, meanwhile, was aiming to sell the highest number of cars in the company’s history, with Mercedes-Benz sales rising 23.1% in January. And Audi posted a global sales increase of 22.6%, continuing to grow in both China and the United States. That tells us that the luxury side of the market is coming back, after a long dormant period.

Fuel Prices: The Wild Card

Another indicator that may trump the rest is the price of fuel. We’ve been seeing a steady climb over the past few months, and there is nothing in the near future that portends a shift back southward. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA; U.S. Department of Energy) said in February—even before the revolutionary goings-on in the Middle East—that the average price of a barrel of crude oil would rise from about $93 in 2011 ($14 higher than the average in 2010) to $99 in the fourth quarter of 2012. That translates to $3.17 per gallon for regular-grade gas this year ($.39 higher than last year) and $3.29 per gallon in 2011 but about $.05 higher in the peak driving season of April through September. Things are so uncertain, however, that the EIA is hedging its bets with a further 25% probability prediction that prices could exceed $3.50 per gallon in the 2011 peak period and an 8%–10% probability that they could exceed $4 per gallon during the peak, with diesel prices rising even higher in each forecast.

If you believe fuel prices are going up, you might expect the sales of fullsize SUVs and pickups to go down. According to a National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) used-car guide industry update in January, if fuel prices continue to increase, consumer demand may again shift toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, which could lead to a softening of prices for larger, more fuel-inefficient ones. “While it doesn’t appear that we’ll experience significant fuel-related shocks over the course of the next 12 months,” the NADA guide said, “the anticipated increases in the cost of fuel will most likely be enough to stifle the two-year explosion in prices enjoyed by certain truck segments.”

The best-attended SEMA Measuring Session for an SUV in 2010 was the one held for the Ford Explorer. The Explorer comes with the very popular MyFord Touch driver-connect technology and SYNC integrated communications and entertainment system as well as stability and curve control technology, and it lays claim to best-in-class fuel economy, which could be an increasingly bigger deal as oil prices continue to escalate. The Explorer is likely to become a high-volume SUV, which could lead to significant demand for upgrades in 2012 and beyond.		The Honda CR-Z made our list of hottest vehicles for 2011 by virtue of leading the Measuring Session attendance in the sporty-car class. The CR-Z two-passenger coupe is a gasoline-electric hybrid that pairs a 1.5L i-VTEC four-cylinder engine and a compact and lightweight Integrated Motor Assist system. It’s available with a six-speed manual transmission or an automatic continuously variable automatic.		The Ford Taurus SHO tallied the greatest number of clicks in the popular “Spy Photos” SEMA eNews feature. The weekly electronic newsletter’s subscribers were obviously interested in the renewal of the Super High Output (SHO) vehicle, which is powered by an EcoBoost twin-turbocharged engine that generates an estimated 365 hp at 5,500 rpm and 350 lb.-ft. of torque at 3,500 rpm. Though it’s early in the year, the Taurus SHO has already won several awards, and as a high-performance car, it’s logical to predict popularity among enthusiasts who will customize.
The Tesla Roadster electric supercar was the most-viewed domestically produced vehicle on the eBay online auction site over a six-month period from September 2010 to February 2011. The Roadster is hand built and skinned in carbon fiber. Its electric powertrain, which produces zero emissions, propels the car to a top speed of 125 mph and accelerates to 60 mph from a standing start in 3.7 seconds. Its onboard charger can be plugged in to any 110- or 220-volt electrical outlet. Given time, it could be a player in the “driving green” segment of the aftermarket.		Sheer popularity: The Toyota Corolla/Matrix was the top-selling car in the United States during January 2011, according to Automotive News. All models are equipped with the 1.8L DOHC four-cylinder engine, which can be ordered with a five-speed manual transmission or a four-speed automatic. Corollas are also equipped with an electronic stability control system and traction control. The Corolla shares platform components with the more enthusiast-oriented Matrix; between the two, specialty parts manufacturers can expect a high-volume market.		Pickups, perhaps the ultimate generic automotive commodity, will continue to be ripe for lowering, lifting and outfitting for towing. Although the ’10 F-Series pickups seemed to generate the most interest, Chevy Silverado/GMC Sierra and Ram pickups are high-volume opportunities with higher-than-average rates of adaptation using specialty equipment. Approximately equal numbers of new products were launched in 2010 for each of the three models.

Gazing Into the Crystal Ball (With Some Educated Guesses)

By Steve Campbell

Foremost among our fortune-telling tools is the SEMA Show itself. Those who attended last November may be aware that SEMA bestowed a series of awards on select vehicles at the 2010 event. The awards for Hottest Car, Hottest Truck and Hottest 4x4-SUV of the Show were actually selected by the exhibitors based on the number of each model displayed in the exhibit spaces. As SEMA President and CEO Chris Kersting put it: “A booth space is a ballot, and the models these exhibitors selected represent their votes.”

The 2010 SEMA Show featured more than 1,900 exhibiting companies, and the three awards were bestowed upon the Chevrolet Camaro, Ford F-Series and Jeep Wrangler. Those are three perennial all-stars for the specialty-equipment industry, and they have been at or near the top of their categories in sales for decades, in some cases. But, we also wanted to dig further into the list of SEMA Indicators to see if there might be other candidates that automotive retailers ought to be conscious of as the year progresses.

Technology Downloads

The SEMA Technology Transfer program is one of the most popular tools available to manufacturing companies. It allows members to request data, such as CAD files, from the SEMA website. The files can be processed directly into the manufacturers’ computers and production machinery, allowing them to eliminate reverse engineering and proceed directly to prototyping components and assemblies. Companies that utilize Tech Transfer shorten their design time, save thousands of dollars and get their products into the marketplace quicker. By counting the number of requests for each vehicle, we get a kind of poll about the way members plan to spend their R&D dollars. Oscar Muñoz, who administers the program, said that the association received 522 requests from 164 members during the final quarter of 2010.

“Without doubt, data for the Camaro, the Corvette and the Mustang were the most requested,” Muñoz said. “New engines are very popular, and the data being requested included cylinder blocks, the intake tract from the air intake to the cylinder heads, internal parts and engine accessory drives. We’ve seen requests from all of the supercharger companies for the engines and surrounding body panels in those three cars. At the moment, I would gauge musclecars and trucks—both light-duty and heavy-duty—among the vehicles of greatest interest to SEMA members.”

Muñoz said that there have also been a number of truly unique requests that may be indicative of vehicle trends. For instance, several producers of electric and hybrid vehicles have asked for files on complete frame and suspension assemblies as well as drivetrain parts for the ’10 Camaro, ’10 Corvette, ’10 Mustang, ’06 E-250, ’08 Focus and ’08 F-150.

		The winner and still champion, Ford’s F-Series pickups were the best-selling vehicles in America for 24 consecutive years and the best-selling trucks for more than three decades. The perennial all-star not only ranked high in downloads from the SEMA Tech Transfer program and was the subject of the best-attended SEMA Measuring Session last year, but it also won the 2010 SEMA Award in the truck division. With so many units out there and so many variations on how a pickup can be customized, it’s a good bet that the F-Series will stay hot among manufacturers in 2WD, 4x4 and heavy-duty work-truck categories.
		The Jeep Wrangler is another perpetual favorite among enthusiasts as well as the general public, and it took the 2010 SEMA Award for being the most ubiquitous 4x4-SUV at the SEMA Show. The Wrangler can be ordered with either of two 4WD systems and heavy-duty axles. The 3.8L V6 may be mated to a six-speed manual or a four-speed automatic transmission. The Wrangler caters to enthusiasts who require off-road equipment, not to mention drivetrain upgrades, so it has been a strong source of parts sales in spite of dips in the economy.
		The Chevrolet Corvette—America’s Sports Car—has been an enthusiast favorite since the first one rolled off the assembly line in 1953. The latest version has been the subject of numerous inquiries to SEMA’s Technology Transfer program. This factory hot rod has turned 190 mph on the track. It’s fitted standard with a 6.2L LS3 aluminum-block V8 and is a slick beast, with a drag coefficient of only .286. Corvette owners, while smaller in number than some cars, are typically enthusiastic about performance upgrades.

Another SEMA Indicator comes from a program that is a companion piece to Tech Transfer. SEMA Measuring Sessions allow member companies to gain hands-on access to near-production prototype vehicles directly from participating automakers in order to collect surface data. These sessions are generally held at the automaker’s facilities and provide attendees with the opportunity to talk directly with original-equipment manufacturer (OEM) engineers.

SEMA holds about 20 Measuring Sessions each year. By looking at how many manufacturers send measuring teams, we get a sense of where industry interest is focused. According to Bill Wolf, SEMA’s senior director of OEM relations, the companies that attend Measuring Sessions tend to be manufacturers of wheels, suspensions, interior and body accessories, mobile electronics and performance powertrain parts.

“These companies are interested in time savings and engineering and design cost savings,” Wolf said. “They can spend more time with a vehicle at a Measuring Session than if they were to borrow it from a dealer. The sessions that were the most well attended were those for vehicles such as the Camaro, Mustang, Scion tC and Mazda2, along with Ford, Ram, Chevy/GMC trucks.”

The best attended of the most recent sessions were those for the ’10 Camaro in the musclecar category, ’11 Ford F-Series in the truck field, ’12 Ford Explorer in the SUV group, Honda CR-Z in the sporty-car class, and Chevrolet Cruze compact sedan. The best-attended gathering of all is no surprise—it was a two-day session in Dearborn, Michigan, that featured the new Ford F-Series.

The New Product Launch Data and Buyer Interest

Another relevant statistic comes from the SEMA Show New Products Showcase, where manufacturers highlight their newest products. By counting the relative frequency of brand-specific product launches, and looking at which categories were most clicked on, we can get a picture of R&D investments made in 2010, and what retailers will be selling in 2011 and beyond. It’s an inexact measurement because so many products are offered without mentioning any specific application, and it ignores entire categories such as street rods and restoration parts. Still, the results confirm the other indicators.

For example, there were at least 83 Ford Mustang-specific product offerings, and 76 product descriptions that mentioned the word “Camaro.” Jeep Wrangler was third with 31 applications. The fullsize pickups were all about the same in terms of new applications: the F-Series had 15 new products; Ram had 14; and a search for Chevy Silverado turned up 14 new products. The somewhat lower numbers for the pickups suggests there are many products that are generic, such as bed boxes, lights or winches. Other models that turned up frequently in product descriptions were Toyota FJ Cruiser, Nissan 370Z, BMW, Range Rover, Corvette, Subaru WRX and Honda Civic.

Another more exact insight comes from buyer card-swipe data, indicating which categories were of greatest interest to buyers at the Show. Among registered buyers at the 2010 Show, the top 10 hot categories were, in order: wheels; exterior accessories; suspension and steering; waxes and polish; engines and engine parts; brake systems; tires and tire accessories; exhaust systems; interior accessories; and lubricants. This represents a bit of a shift from 2009, when engines and engine parts were the number one category among buyers.

By combining the two observations, it seems clear that wheels, suspension components and engine parts for musclecars, Jeeps and pickups will be fertile ground for manufacturers and retailers in 2011.

Spy Shot Clicks

New vehicles that are near release or are on the horizon also pique interest as SEMA Indicators. A feature called “Spy Photos” in the association’s SEMA eNews weekly electronic newsletter has developed a devoted following. Each week, Brenda Priddy and her band of surreptitious shooters capture a few unauthorized frames of test vehicles that the automakers have out on the roads but aren’t quick ready for the general public to see. Jason Catullo, the newsletter’s associate editor, said that five such shots created considerable spikes in viewership in the last year. Logically, these are the vehicles that specialty manufacturers find most interesting.

The Ford Taurus SHO tallied top interest, followed by the announcement that the Chevy Malibu would be receiving a turbocharger, an Australian version of the Ford Falcon, the Chevrolet Volt and the Acura TL.

“On a general note, our readers are most interested in domestic models,” Catullo said. “Ten domestic models that scored higher than average in the last year included the Chevrolet Camaro Z/28, an SRT8 development vehicle, the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the Cadillac CTS Wagon, the Ford F-150 Raptor, the Volt, the Australian Ford, the Malibu with Turbo and the Taurus SHO. Even though only four truck or SUV photos ran during the entire year, they all scored higher than average and were all domestic.”

		The Chevrolet Cruze led in Measuring Session attendance for its compact sedan class. The Cruze is touted by Chevrolet as having the “spaciousness and amenities of a midsize car with the fuel economy of a compact.” It’s powered by either a 1.4L Ecotec turbocharged engine or the standard 1.8L Ecotec and includes electronic stability control with rollover sensing and traction control.
		Tech Transfer data on the Mustang was also among the most requested, and the GT500 version ranked very high in auction searches on eBay. The Mustang GT is equipped with a 412hp 5.0L V8 engine and a six-speed manual transmission, while the base V6 delivers 305 hp and 31 mpg. There was a large number of customized Mustangs at the SEMA Show in 2010, and a significant factor in parts launches as seen in the New Products Showcase.

Our final specific-vehicle indicator comes from eBay. We asked the highly trafficked auction site to let us in on the top makes and models viewed in the past six months, and this time, the results were surprising. The top search topic was the high-zoot Maybach, with replicas and kits based on Porsches and Corvettes in second place. When we asked about views for domestic vehicles, eBay’s experts told us that the top five most-viewed vehicles were the Tesla Roadster, Shelby GT 500, Galatea kit car, Hummer line and various Cadillac models.

In a more general sense on the international front, Reuters reported in February that the global auto market was on an upswing. Of course, that was prior to the latest unrest in the Middle East and the resulting uncertainty in fuel prices, but it’s worth noting that the emerging markets were looking more positive and U.S. sales were stronger, both of which affect total global sales. Toyota, the world’s number-one auto manufacturer, raised its expectations based on stronger projections and cost-cutting measures, and Reuters said that Toyota was forecasting better-than-expected sales in Asia, Japan and Russia.

Reuters also reported that BMW unit sales rose 28% in January and expected to reach its target of selling more than 1.5 million units in 2011. Daimler, meanwhile, was aiming to sell the highest number of cars in the company’s history, with Mercedes-Benz sales rising 23.1% in January. And Audi posted a global sales increase of 22.6%, continuing to grow in both China and the United States. That tells us that the luxury side of the market is coming back, after a long dormant period.

Fuel Prices: The Wild Card

Another indicator that may trump the rest is the price of fuel. We’ve been seeing a steady climb over the past few months, and there is nothing in the near future that portends a shift back southward. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA; U.S. Department of Energy) said in February—even before the revolutionary goings-on in the Middle East—that the average price of a barrel of crude oil would rise from about $93 in 2011 ($14 higher than the average in 2010) to $99 in the fourth quarter of 2012. That translates to $3.17 per gallon for regular-grade gas this year ($.39 higher than last year) and $3.29 per gallon in 2011 but about $.05 higher in the peak driving season of April through September. Things are so uncertain, however, that the EIA is hedging its bets with a further 25% probability prediction that prices could exceed $3.50 per gallon in the 2011 peak period and an 8%–10% probability that they could exceed $4 per gallon during the peak, with diesel prices rising even higher in each forecast.

If you believe fuel prices are going up, you might expect the sales of fullsize SUVs and pickups to go down. According to a National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) used-car guide industry update in January, if fuel prices continue to increase, consumer demand may again shift toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, which could lead to a softening of prices for larger, more fuel-inefficient ones. “While it doesn’t appear that we’ll experience significant fuel-related shocks over the course of the next 12 months,” the NADA guide said, “the anticipated increases in the cost of fuel will most likely be enough to stifle the two-year explosion in prices enjoyed by certain truck segments.”

The best-attended SEMA Measuring Session for an SUV in 2010 was the one held for the Ford Explorer. The Explorer comes with the very popular MyFord Touch driver-connect technology and SYNC integrated communications and entertainment system as well as stability and curve control technology, and it lays claim to best-in-class fuel economy, which could be an increasingly bigger deal as oil prices continue to escalate. The Explorer is likely to become a high-volume SUV, which could lead to significant demand for upgrades in 2012 and beyond.		The Honda CR-Z made our list of hottest vehicles for 2011 by virtue of leading the Measuring Session attendance in the sporty-car class. The CR-Z two-passenger coupe is a gasoline-electric hybrid that pairs a 1.5L i-VTEC four-cylinder engine and a compact and lightweight Integrated Motor Assist system. It’s available with a six-speed manual transmission or an automatic continuously variable automatic.		The Ford Taurus SHO tallied the greatest number of clicks in the popular “Spy Photos” SEMA eNews feature. The weekly electronic newsletter’s subscribers were obviously interested in the renewal of the Super High Output (SHO) vehicle, which is powered by an EcoBoost twin-turbocharged engine that generates an estimated 365 hp at 5,500 rpm and 350 lb.-ft. of torque at 3,500 rpm. Though it’s early in the year, the Taurus SHO has already won several awards, and as a high-performance car, it’s logical to predict popularity among enthusiasts who will customize.
The Tesla Roadster electric supercar was the most-viewed domestically produced vehicle on the eBay online auction site over a six-month period from September 2010 to February 2011. The Roadster is hand built and skinned in carbon fiber. Its electric powertrain, which produces zero emissions, propels the car to a top speed of 125 mph and accelerates to 60 mph from a standing start in 3.7 seconds. Its onboard charger can be plugged in to any 110- or 220-volt electrical outlet. Given time, it could be a player in the “driving green” segment of the aftermarket.		Sheer popularity: The Toyota Corolla/Matrix was the top-selling car in the United States during January 2011, according to Automotive News. All models are equipped with the 1.8L DOHC four-cylinder engine, which can be ordered with a five-speed manual transmission or a four-speed automatic. Corollas are also equipped with an electronic stability control system and traction control. The Corolla shares platform components with the more enthusiast-oriented Matrix; between the two, specialty parts manufacturers can expect a high-volume market.		Pickups, perhaps the ultimate generic automotive commodity, will continue to be ripe for lowering, lifting and outfitting for towing. Although the ’10 F-Series pickups seemed to generate the most interest, Chevy Silverado/GMC Sierra and Ram pickups are high-volume opportunities with higher-than-average rates of adaptation using specialty equipment. Approximately equal numbers of new products were launched in 2010 for each of the three models.

The vehicle photo gallery on enjoythedrive.com features more than 2,000 of the vehicles on display at the 2010 SEMA Show. Each week, SEMA eNews features a gallery of downloaded photos showcasing certain groups of vehicles. This week's highlighted group are the motorcycles and scooters of Sunny Powersports Inc.

One of the best features of the gallery on enjoythedrive.com is that it's searchable by several keywords, including vehicle make, vehicle model, exhibiting company name and more.

The vehicle photo gallery on enjoythedrive.com features more than 2,000 of the vehicles on display at the 2010 SEMA Show. Each week, SEMA eNews features a gallery of downloaded photos showcasing certain groups of vehicles. This week's highlighted group are the motorcycles and scooters of Sunny Powersports Inc.

One of the best features of the gallery on enjoythedrive.com is that it's searchable by several keywords, including vehicle make, vehicle model, exhibiting company name and more.

 

	Bert Zech

Eastern Catalytic Names Bert Zech CFO
Eastern Catalytic appointed Bert Zech as the company's new chief financial officer. In his new position as CFO, Zech is responsible for all financial activities and the health of the company, including accounting, treasury, risk management and systems integration. Prior to joining Eastern Catalytic, Zech was most recently with Conair Corp. as its divisional vice president of finance. Before his work at Conair, he was the vice president of finance at Scunci International for more than 10 years.

AMSOIL Launches New Racing Website
AMSOIL INC. has launched a new website at www.amsoilracing.com. According to the company, the new site highlights the company’s partnerships in the top levels of motorsports, including motorcycle, off-road truck and snowmobile racing and will include team profiles, event schedules and up-to-the-minute results and news.

ASA Tire Systems Appoints Darrell Daniels VP of Sales & Marketing
ASA Tire Systems appointed Darrell Daniels to vice president of sales and marketing. According to the company, Daniels will be an integral part of the senior management team and oversee the company’s sales team, as well as all marketing activities. Most recently, Darrell spent close to 10 years at AutoPart International where he was responsible for a $28 million sales budget for its wholesale division. "It's very exciting to join ASA at a time when the company is uniquely positioned for unprecedented growth," commented Darrell Daniels. "This is an exceptional opportunity for me to leverage my experience in automotive aftermarket sales to build ASA’s market share and take relationship marketing strategies to the next level. I am committed to identifying growth opportunities, building awareness of the ASA brand and helping the company achieve its revenue objectives."

TRG Motorsports Chooses Roush Yates Engines
Roush Yates Engines announced that TRG Motorsports is the newest team to drive Roush Yates Engines' Ford FR9 motors. According to a recent announcement, TRG Motorsports has fielded Chevrolets for the past three years but will begin running Ford FR9 engines from Roush Yates and Ford Fusions from Roush Fenway Racing at Texas Motor Speedway beginning April 9.

Andrew Walker

Andrew Walker Named U.S. Operations General Manager for Atlas Copco Compressors
Atlas Copco Compressors named Andrew Walker as its general manager for U.S. operations, effective March 1. He succeeded Paul Hense, who leaves for a new position within the Atlas Copco Airpower Division. Walker joined Atlas Copco in 1986 and held various positions in aftermarket and equipment sales and management, both in Ireland and Great Britain before moving to Belgium. In 2001, he was named aftermarket marketing manager for the industrial air division and was appointed vice president marketing – equipment for the industrial air division in 2005. He returned to his native Ireland in 2007 to take the role of general manager of the customer center in Ireland.

Ram Truck, Mopar Announce TORC Series Sponsorship
Ram Truck and Mopar announced joint sponsorship plans for The Off-Road Championship (TORC) series in 2011. The sponsorship includes five PRO-class drivers driving Ram trucks during the 14-race series that gets underway Memorial Day weekend at Red Bud MX in Buchanan, Michigan. Ram Truck and Mopar will share sponsorship of the Traxxas Racing team fielded by Mike and Mark Jenkins along with the Menzies Motorsports team owned by Steve Menzies.

NEWS NUGGETS

HIGHT WINS SECOND OF THE SEASON; BROWN, EDWARDS NAB FIRST WINS OF 2011 IN LAS VEGAS: The stakes were as high as ever as the NHRA Full Throttle Drag Racing Series entered Las Vegas last week for its third stop in 2011—the SummitRacing.com NHRA Nationals—and by Sunday night, Funny Car driver Robert Hight stood in the Winner’s Circle for the second time that season, becoming the first Funny Car driver in the event’s 12-season history to be named a repeat winner (2007).

“It’s not getting any easier, but it’s a lot of hard work,” Hight told the media afterwards. “If you let your guard down any little bit, you are going to get beat. I had close side-by-side races in every round. There are no easy ones. In this day and age in this competition, it’s awesome.”

With his win, Hight extended the John Force Racing wins streak to five in a row, dating back to the final two races of 2010. He also took the points lead in Funny Car, 48 points ahead of second-place driver Cruz Pedregon. Hight was joined in the Winner’s Circle by Top Fuel pilot Antron Brown and Pro Stock driver Mike Edwards. Brown powered his Aaron’s/Matco Tools dragster past Brandon Bernstein to earn his first win of the season and first at The Strip At Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but it may have been his second round win over teammate and seven-time world champion Tony Schumacher that got the most attention.

“This car was great all weekend, and it feels good to hit the jackpot here in Vegas,” said Brown. “This weekend, everything felt right. Our team just stepped up. We had to give it all we had and kept it going throughout eliminations. We got it done.”

The win pushed Antron up to the second spot in the point standings in Top Fuel, just eight points away from points leader Del Worsham. In Pro Stock, Mike Edwards dominated the class all weekend, taking his first No. 1 qualifier of the season with track temperatures reaching 130 degrees, then raced to his first win of the season and first since June 2010 when he drove his Penhall/Interstate Batteries Pontiac GXP past Vincent Nobile in the final round.

“We started off (the season) pretty slow and pretty bad for us really,” said Edwards. “We regrouped and came in here with a new car and made some tremendous runs all weekend. It’s a total team effort. My guys did an awesome job all weekend. They gave me 110% and they never quit.” For more results from the SummitRacing.com NHRA Nationals, visit NHRA.com.

FOUR NHRA LEGENDS FOR THE FOUR-WIDE NATIONALS: With a who’s who of NHRA legends scheduled to help celebrate NHRA’s 60th Anniversary season, the second annual VisitMyrtleBeach.com NHRA Four-Wide Nationals, April 14–17 at zMAX Dragway, promises to be a can’t-miss event for fans in the heart of the motorsports-crazed Carolinas. The NHRA legends scheduled to be at zMAX Dragway to meet and greet fans during the race weekend are “Big Daddy” Don Garlits, Shirley Muldowney, Kenny Bernstein and Connie Kalitta. The drivers will be available throughout the weekend for meet-and-greets and autograph sessions with fans. The event will also feature a vintage car corral, parade of classic cars and Four-Wide Track Walk, during which fans who have purchased a reserved ticket can walk beside and listen to stories told by one of the legends Sunday morning prior to the pre-race activities. Tickets are still available for the VisitMyrtleBeach.com NHRA Four-Wide Nationals and can be purchased by visiting charlottemotorspeedway.com.

COMING ATTRACTIONS

VISITMYRTLEBEACH.COM NHRA 4-WIDE NATIONALS, zMAX DRAGWAY, April 14–17: The NHRA Full Throttle Drag Racing Series returns to the “Bellagio of dragstrips” for the only 4-wide national event on the calendar. Defending event winners include Cory McClenathan (Top Fuel); John Force (Funny Car); Mike Edwards (Pro Stock); and Matt Smith (Pro Stock Motorcycle). For tickets, call 800/455-FANS (3267) or go online at Ticketmaster.com. For media credentials, please contact Director of Public Relations Michael Padian at mpadian@nhra.com.

O’REILLY AUTO PARTS NHRA SPRING NATIONALS, ROYAL PURPLE RACEWAY, April 29–May 1: The NHRA Full Throttle Drag Racing Series makes its first of two stops in the Lone Star State as it heads to Houston and Royal Purple Raceway. Defending event winners include Larry Dixon (Top Fuel); Matt Hagan (Funny Car); Jeg Coughlin (Pro Stock); and Andrew Hines (Pro Stock Motorcycle). For tickets, call 281/383-RACE (7223) or go online at ExtremeTix.com. For media credentials, please contact Director of Media Relations Anthony Vestal at avestal@nhra.com.

SUMMIT RACING EQUIPMENT NHRA SOUTHERN NATIONALS, ATLANTA DRAGWAY, May 13–15: The NHRA Full Throttle Drag Racing Series returns to the South and the Georgia area for its sixth stop of 2011. Defending event winners include Larry Dixon (Top Fuel); Robert Hight (Funny Car); Jeg Coughlin (Pro Stock); and Andrew Hines (Pro Stock Motorcycle). For tickets, call 800/884-NHRA (6472) or go online at NHRATIX.com. For media credentials, please Media Relations Manager Zak Elcock at zelcock@nhra.com.

HE SAID, SHE SAID


SO CLOSE HE CAN TASTE IT: Funny Car driver Johnny Gray after his runner-up finish at the SummitRacing.com NHRA Nationals in Las Vegas: “This is what it takes to form a championship team. We keep getting better and better as a team. Lee (Beard, crew chief) and Don (Schumacher, team owner) provide great leadership and along with Service Central, provide us with what we need to get the job done. It’s all good!”

60 YEARS IN NHRA HISTORY

1953, THE FIRST NHRA SANCTIONED EVENT IS HELD: On April 11–12, 1953: On the grounds that would one day become Auto Club Raceway at Pomona, the Southern California Championship Drags, the first-ever sanctioned event in NHRA history, was held. An estimated 15,000–16,000 fans came out to see an entry list of 375 vehicles compete, with a total of 850 timed runs, including 175 in eliminations.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

74: That’s the number of points that separate first-place Top Fuel pilot Del Worsham from fifth-place driver Spencer Massey, making Top Fuel one of the closest classes so far in the 2011 season.

DID YOU KNOW…

…that NHRA has partnered with Ford for a special 60th Anniversary Sweepstakes to go along with the NHRA 60th Anniversary celebration? From now until November 30, residents of the United States who are at least 18 years old can enter the sweepstakes, and one lucky NHRA fan will be selected as the winner of the grand prize—a ’12 Ford Focus Titanium. Additional prizes will also be given. For more information on the 60th Anniversary Sweepstakes and how to enter, visit NHRA.com.

For more information, contact NHRA Media Relations at 626/914-4761 or visit the NHRA Media Center online.